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Thoughts on basketball and football


 Iowa football Season Preview
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Iowa football has been an immense disappointment for the past three years; we were expected to rise into the consistent elite of college football but instead have shifted into irrelevance, especially after the no-bowl postseason of last year. Once again, our schedule is one of the easiest in the nation, missing the big boys of Ohio State and Michigan. Besides the running backs and the linebackers, almost everybody is returning to a team that struggled with consistency and that elusive 1st down for much of last season. The offense was efficient and rarely turned the ball over, but really had trouble scoring and in all facets of the offense. The offensive line played poorly, our quarterback was inconsistent at best, and our play-calling was questionable and conservative, not sticking enough to our strong running game. The defense was overall fantastic, but being on the field for so long at times with our poor offense just got them exhausted and eventually they would inevitably wear out and give in. You still have to question the lack of blitzes in our defensive play-calling as well. But with so many players back, our off-field woes that defined last season seemingly behind us, and all of those young wideouts with a year of experience under their belts, I truly believe (once again) that surprises are in store for the coming season. I think we will have a hungry attitude to prove all the doubters wrong, and with the valuable game time everyone got last year and the very manageable schedule, I think we can sneak up and have a shot at the Big Ten crown. I'm ready for Kinnick to be sacred ground once again, for players to represent the university well off the field and on, and for Kirk Ferentz to show the nation that he still is the best in the business and lead Iowa back to the top where we belong. We start the year off at Kinnick against 1-AA Maine, the school where Kirk coached before coming to Iowa. He should be willing to beat his old team by at least 35. There will be no excuse for not blowing these guys out in this glorified scrimmage. The next opponent isn't much better; Florida International is a fledgling program just getting their D1 start, and they should be our tackling dummies when they come to Kinnick. I never want to dismiss an opponent like that, especially after the upset spectacle that was last season, but if we want to get back to Big Ten championship form we have to take care of these opponents. Iowa State then comes to play us at Kinnick this season; there are a lot of people who want to end this rivalry because the damn Cyclones have been giving us fits ever since Dan McCarney took over there in the late '90s, but it is good for the state and always gets the people excited. We should beat them, because like usual we have more talent on paper, but you can't play these games on paper and ISU always comes to play against us. You'd think we should beat them at Kinnick, but you cannot take anything for granted in this series. It should be a great game and a great atmosphere, but very unpredictable. Will be looking forward to this one, as usual. The toughest and most hyped nonconference game we have comes next, when we take on Pittsburgh at their place. People have been saying Pitt is on the rise for years, but they have yet to live up to expectations. They finally showed a spark of promise at the end of last season when they beat West Virginia and kept them out of the national title game, so they just might be a sleeper team this year, and will be dangerous no doubt. I just don't see them living up to expectations though, and I think this will be a good game with Iowa having a chance to win. The Big Ten season starts off as easy as can be expected as well, with a date against Northwestern at Kinnick. The Wildcats have given us hell recently but we finally stopped the curse and got revenge at Ryan Field last year. We can never take them lightly, but this is a game we must have. We then have two road dates against Michigan State and Indiana, neither of them the most intimidating road environments. MSU is a dangerous squad that appears to be on the rise with head coach Mark Dantonio, but they are losing some offensive and defensive talent from last season. This may be our toughest road test though; they will want revenge after our double overtime victory last season. Indiana won't be nearly as scary as they have been the last two years, with Hawkeye-killer James Hardy departing to the draft and QB Kellen Lewis suspended indefinitely. Their homecrowds are rarely even half-filled, so this isn't the most deadly road environment in the world. I think Indiana falls to build off of last year's success and Iowa beats them again, finally. Next up is a big home game against Wisconsin, a rivalry game against a much-hated team that has beat us two years in a row after a 6 year period of Iowa dominance. Will be a vital game if we want to challenge for the big crown. The Badgers will have a great defense and a physical running game, but we almost beat them last season and I think the players will be ready to win this one. Next up is a road date at Illinois, last year's surprise Big Ten runner-ups and representatives in the Rose Bowl. They lose all-world back Rashad Mendenhall and need to find a capable replacement or else they're going to be one dimensional, and Juice Williams is not going to lead them to the Big Ten title. This is a very winnable game for Iowa. A home date against Penn State finishes off this tough stretch. Penn State loses inconsistent QB Anthony Morelli and their All-American linebacker Sean Lee is out for the season with a torn ACL, but they will still be a solid bunch with a pretty good defense. The development of a QB will be vital there. Again, especially with this game being at Kinnick, this is very winnable. Purdue comes to Kinnick the next week. They killed us last year with a little dose of Dorien Bryant and some horrible offensive play. Well, Bryant is gone, but Purdue's offense still figures to be explosive with QB Curtis Painter returning as a senior and the running backs returning. Purdue's improved defense will be the guy, but you'd think our players will be ready to get revenge for last season's embarassing 34-6 defeat. The last game of the season is the obligatory Battle for the Floyd of Rosedale at the Metrodome against Minnesota, the worst team in the Big Ten last year by a long shot. They somehow landed a great recruiting class, but they probably won't reap the fruits of these rewards for at least a year or two. I still expect them to be below-average.

The two biggest questions for the Iowa Hawkeyes next year are on offense, at QB and running back. Our offense was very poor last season, and the real only bright spot for the last 5 or 6 games was Albert Young and Damian Sims, our running backs. Young put the team on his shoulders for a couple games, and Sims had two TDs in a win over Northwestern. But both of them are gone. The guy who is back is Jake Christensen, our inconsistent (at best) leftie quarterback who missed high and wide and low and just about everywhere else in a season where he showed us the strength of his arm but also some very poor accuracy. He didn't checkdown to his 2nd and 3rd options enough and took way too many sacks, getting happy feet and not throwing the ball away. He needs to show that he's more comfortable in the pocket and more decisive when he chooses to run and pass, and not take big sacks that kill a drive. Our offensive line was a major reason there was so much pressure, but Jake still needs to get rid of the ball quicker, whether it goes into somebody's hands or sails out of bounds. I know he has the arm to be successful and he had a fantastic attitude last season, and I applaud Kirk for not tryin to create an unneeded QB controversy by putting someone else in, but this season it will be a different story if he struggles, because there will be better backups waiting in the wings. Ricky Stanzi is the 2nd string guy right now, a sophmore who played amazing in our annual spring scrimmage and really got the fans talking about our QB situation. He is taller than Jake and much more decisive, and he's able to make a lot of softer, touch passes that Jake seemed incapable of last season, such as the screen pass. Jake played well in the spring game as well and he does have Big Ten experience, but if he struggles early in the year, say against Iowa State or Pitt, than Kirk shouldn't hesitate to give Stanzi a try. Currently, Marvin McNutt is the 3rd string guy. He's a raw leftie and a fantastic athlete who is still getting all the mechanics and nuances of passing down, but he has potential to be a good QB someday. We also have three QBs coming into the program next year who were at the spring game but obviously couldn't play because they're still seniors in high school. James Vandenberg is a record-setting stud from Keokuk, Iowa who seems to have all the tools in his repitoire, but he never played amazing competition in high school. His superstar stats should get him a good look though and he might be a good one. One of the most exciting prospects is Chris Wienke, who had committed to Michigan before their coaching change. Wienke was one of the top quarterbacks in the nation, a pro-style passer with seemingly all the mechanics and skills of the traditional drop-back QB. And finally, there's David Blackwell, a fantastic athlete who may be moved to linebacker or reciever when he comes to the program. A lot of big SEC schools were recruiting him, but Iowa was the only school that gave him a chance to play QB, so we'll see what happens there. It's getting to be quite the logjam at the position.

Running back is incredibly thin right now in the spring, with only one scholarship back practicing as we wait on three of them that are coming in the fall. Jevon Pugh would have been our only returning back with any carries in a regular season game, but he got homesick and went back to Florida. So now, our number 1 guy in the spring is Paki O'Meara, a walk-on from Cedar Rapids whose power and hard work must be impressing Coach Ferentz. It's great to see him getting recognition for his hard work, but it's unrealistic to think that he'll still be the number 1 guy come fall. Nate Guillory, a juco transfer from Texas, is the only guy on scholarship right now. He's a little guy with blazing speed and a taste for the home run. He still needs to work on his blocking ability and to run for small gains sometimes instead of going for the 20-yard run everytime, but he has explosive potential and could easily be the number 1 guy here pretty soon. Special-teams menace Jayme Murphy, a tough and physical player with tons of big hits on his highlight reel, has also been tryed at running back but the walk-on banged up his back in the spring. Next fall, we'll have junior Shonn Greene coming back to the program after spending a year at Kirkwood Junior College to get his grades back in order, along with freshmen Jeff Brinson and Jewel Hampton, both record setting running backs with loads of potential. Greene was a fantastic back in his short time at Iowa before he got in academic trouble; he was powerful and fast and really has star potential, but the only thing is that he hasn't played football in over a year and might be out of shape. We need him to return strong and in-shape to have a great running game next season. Brinson is creating a lot of hype because of his 5,000 career rushing yards in high school and the big Florida schools who were recruiting him; he is very powerful and athletic and he could be our back of the future. Hampton is another speedster from Indiana who put up 2,600 yards in his career. He also has potential to be our future back or contribute right away.

If they are healthy, our wideouts could be a pleasant surprise after the much needed experience last season. With injuries and suspensions, our wideout group was woefully thin and young last year, with freshman thrown into the fire and having to play major time. We lost one of our better ones, James Cleveland, after a drug arrest, but the majority of everyone is back and healthy and they could be a pleasant surprise if everything goes according to plan. Andy Brodell is big and extremly fast; most Hawkeye fans can still remember the havoc he wrecked on Texas's defensive backs in the '06 Alamo Bowl. He was looking like our number 1 guy and a valuable possesion reciever last season before he hurt his hamstring, and coming back healthy this year is huge for our passing game. Trey Stross was also hurt for a few games last season and that made a major impact. Trey is fast, athletic, and he has great hands. He has star potential and could have a huge season. Derrell Johnson-Koulianos was a big surprise last year with the injuries; he made some amazing, sportscenter worthy plays and catches and was our most dangerous big-play guy in the passing game. He's a great athlete and can also be used in a variety of ways. He needs to cut down on the drops this season, but keep on providing big plays. Colin Sandeman was banged up last year but showed a tough, physical side, speed, and a willingness to catch them over the middle. He could be a valuable contributor. Paul Chaney has major speed, but he's a little guy who couldn't always hang on last year. With his explosive quickness, he's a threat everytime he touches the ball though. We have Tony Moeaki coming back healthy at tight end as well; he showed in his limited time last year that he's a legit John Mackey candidate. He has great hands and quickness for a guy his size, and he's a fantastic blocker. Almost everything you can want in a tight end. He will probably be Jake's favorite target, as he showed in the Syracuse game last season when he had 3 TDs and over 100 yards. Brandon Myers is the backup tight end and played very well in Moeaki's absence; he's not the explosive athlete or blocker that Moeaki is but he has good hands and was a reliable target. Allen Reisner is also a big target to look our for; he has gotten a lot stronger and faster this spring and has gotten more of an opportunity with spring injuries. Lots of depth at this position. Perhaps the biggest X-factor on the team besides the running game is the offensive line; they were horrible last year, which is surprising for a Kirk Ferentz coached team, and allowed some of the most sacks in the nation. JC contributed to some of those sacks, but the line just never gelled or played as a consistent unit. Defenses were constantly in the backfield, and these guys never became that stout "family" that our best lines have been. Some names to look for include Rafael Eubanks and Rob Bruggeman, who are battling for the center position. Whoever loses the battle will probably start at another spot, because both of these guys are leaders and too good to be left off the field. Seth Olsen will be the lone senior, and should be a cornerstone of the line. He was somewhat inconsistent, but was our best run blocker. Bryan Bulaga, Kyle Calloway, and Dan Doering are all great young linemen with loads of potential, and they will need to be good for us to have success. Dace Richardson came into Iowa with the hype of an All-America, a future NFL star and cornerstone left tackle. Injuries have kept him on the sideline more than on the field, but if he get his knee injuries worked out than he can be our best lineman. Julian Vandervelde is another fairly young lineman who played average last year; he isn't bad but there may be better guys at his spot.

Our defense looks to be our strength once again, keeping up with the Iowa tradition of being tough, hard-hitters and playing straight up, traditional D with no fancy tricks. Simple and fundamental; that's how Iowa plays defense. We don't blitz often, but if everyone mans their position and smacks their opponents around than it's a porven formula for success. We must replace two corners, two defensive ends, and two linebackers but for the most part the replacements should be better than the guys they'll be taking over for. The D-line should be a major strength, with seniors Mitch King and Matt Kroul holding down the middle for the 4th year in a row while Adrian Clayborn and Christian Ballard take over for Kenny Iwebema and Brian Mattison, who both graduated. King plays harder than anybody on this team, with a reckless energy and constant motor that make up for his lack of size. He is always active and making big plays, probably our best defender. Kroul is his less-heralded partner, but he is always solid in run support and rarely makes mistakes. Clayborn and Ballard are far more explosive and quick off the line than Iwebema and Mattison; we should see more pass rushing and getting in the backfield with these two. They both made huge plays in our wins down the stretch last year in limited time. Clayborn is massive, a great athlete, and has All-Big Ten potential, while Ballard is a little undersized but will almost always be quicker than the lineman he is matched up against and should be able to wreak havoc in the backfield on a regular basis. Hardworking seniors Mike Klinkenborg and Mike Humpal, both stalwarts in stopping the running game and tackle machines with loads of heart, have graduated and finding their replacements is a big priority. AJ Edds was the other starter last year, and he should be one of our best players. He is quick and a solid tackler, a sideline-to-sideline playmaker who is surprisingly solid in coverage. He will also be counted on for leadership. Jacody Coleman, Pat Angerer, and Jerimiha Hunter are the other three guys competing for the last two spots. Coleman played fantastic when subbing in for Klinkenborg last year; he showed a non-stop motor, great quickness off the line, and very solid tackling ability. Angerer has been banged up his entire Hawkeye career, but he plays with a lot of heart and has had a great spring. He will probably take one of these spots. Hunter was one of the stop high school players in the nation when he committed to Iowa, a 5-star recruit and Parade All-American. He has great athleticism and can run and make plays all over the field, but something must not be panning out because he is not making much noise on the depth chart. If he's your back up though, you know you have some good linebackers. The safety spots will be held down by heavy hitter Harold Dalton and the young Brett Greenwood. Dalton plays in the Marcus Paschal vein, in that he isn't great in coverage but can really lay some big hits on you across the middle and in the backfield. Greenwood was a great surprise last year; he made a few freshman mistakes, but he worked his way up from being a walk-on and made his share of game-saving plays, including an interception of Eddie McGee to beat Illinois and a pick against Minnesota on a two-point conversion attempt to win that one. He plays with a ton of energy and should be Iowa's next walk-on surprise. The great Charles Godfrey and the not-so-great Adam Shada have departed, leaving room for Jordan Bernstein and Bradley Fletcher to take over the corner spots. Bernstein was one of the most highly regarded prospects out of Iowa in years when he committed, and he has loads of potential. Hopefully he can realize it next season. He has great speed, athleticism, and size, which all combine to give him lockdown corner potential. Fletcher was very inconsistent and got beat often before the last few games of last season. He made a few picks and played solid coverage, a nice improvement over Shada, who got beat a couple times every game. If Fletcher can play like he did to end last year he will be just fine.

As for special teams, it's been a team weakness for a couple years now; in 2004, our rock-solid, reliable kicking game and blocked punts truly helped lead us to the Big Ten title, but since then special teams has really been regressing. We have potential studs and lots of speed in the return game, but our kicking game is a big question mark. Daniel Murray has more accuracy than Austin Signor, but a weaker leg, and vice versa. I thought Murray would be our guy after the Michigan State game, when he hit two 40+ kicks, but he missed multiple extra points in the Western Michigan game to raise doubts about his leg once again. I still think he is more consistent than Signor, who is good for kickoffs, but we can't afford to miss extra points. Punting started off as a weakness, but with all the practice he got thanks to our poor offense Ryan Donahue eventually became one of the Big Ten's best. He has a very strong leg and should be very reliable for the punting game. So, with our easy schedule, potentially dominate defense, and hopefully the emergence of a running back to go along with the improved passing game, I think we can go 9-3 or 10-2. I know those sound like lofty goals with the underacheiving we have been doing lately, but it's a realistic possibility and anything less than 7 or 8 wins with this schedule is disastrous.
Posted by white_kong at 7:02 PM - No Comments   Add a Comment  
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