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Thoughts on basketball and football


 South/West Regional Predictions, and Kansas Thoughts
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Memphis controls the number 1 seed in this region, where they will matchup with the Southland conference champs, Texas-Arlington. Memphis is perhaps the most athletic team in the nation, perfect at executing their dribble-penetration centered attack now famously known as the dribble-drive thanks to freshman point guard Derrick Rose, who I think is the best point in the nation. Few, if any, teams in the nation can guard the bevy of athletes that Memphis puts on the floor every night; when they are attacking in transition, forcing turnovers with their pressure defense, and just overwhelming teams with their aggressive offensive style than there is NO team in the nation who can stop them. Rose is big, strong, and cat-quick, unstoppable off the drive with a decision making ability that belies his freshman status. He's got a beautiful pull-up and deadly jumper, and seems to already know the balance between scoring and dishing. That's good because he has plenty of athletic teammates to pass the ball too. Chris Douglas-Roberts is their most consistent player and scorer, a lanky athlete with a wide array of quirky ball-handling moves and tear drops to put up 15-20 points every game. Robert Dozier is long and (surprise) athletic, a valuable defender and finisher around the rim who can also step out and hit the outside shot. Very versatile. The key to the team is probably Joey Dorsey, pretty much Ben Wallace in blue and white. When Dorsey can control his emotions and stay out of foul trouble, he is the most intimidating inside player in the nation. He attacks the glass with a vicious ferocity, finishes stronger than anyone in the college game, and is great at blocking shots from the help-side. Shawn Taggert is also a valuable scorer off the bench. They have loads and loads of depth and size at every single position, which only adds to the impossibility of guarding them. If Memphis wins it all, they will have set the record for most wins of any team, ever. They should get started with UT-Arlington, an athletic team as well but one that doesn't have the size or depth to keep up with these Tigers. Memphis doesn't even have to be focused to win this one. Mississippi State plays Oregon in the 8-9 game. Pretty hard to get a read on either one of these squads, as they appear to be evenly matched. Oregon got in with a mediocre record thanks to their brutal schedule and end of season improvement; they really miss Aaron Brooks as a leader from last season but they do have plenty of experience and scoring talent. I think Miss. State is a much more balanced team, and their stingy defense should frustrate the jump-shooting heavy Ducks. They have more size and should attack the inside and score in transition...MSU in a close one. Michigan State has been incredibly inconsistent all year long, their offense seemingly coming and going with however Drew Neitzel is shooting that night. They have played unstoppable at the Breslin Center, and they have good size and good athletes, but they have yet to put it all together and Neitzel has not shown the perfect J that everyone expected this season. They will play Temple, another dangerous A-10 team playing fantastic down the stretch. They have a lot of confidence and offensive talent, and unless MSU's big men can play career games to exploit their weak inside presence, than I think that Temple will pull the upset and put the Spartans' up and down year to rest. Pittsburgh will destroy an Oral Roberts team that has become quite the mid-major dynasty, making the NCAAs three years in a row, but has yet to get over the hump. Pitt is playing some of the best basketball of anybody in the tournament, fresh off a Big East tourney title. They have their scrappy leader back, Levance Fields, playing as well as any guard in the country, along with freshman beast DeJuan Blair controlling the boards and the paint and Ronald Ramon stroking threes. Pitt is an extremly tough team that thrives off of physical play and getting to the free throw line, and if they can do that they can beat anybody. Marquette's athletic guards will befuddle undermanned Kentucky, who could really use the inside presence of Patrick Patterson in this game to exploit the lack of any real post presence for the Golden Eagles. Stanford takes on Cornell in a battle of the brains, but the Cardinal have loads more talent than Cornell and this won't even be close. The amazing 7-foot Lopez twins will destroy the Big Red inside, and Stanford's underrated guards will make sure that Cornell's shooters don't get too many open looks. Saint Mary's will pull off a minor upset over Miami, a very athletic and surprising team that will be enjoying their 1st March Madness bid in a while. St. Mary's is extremly balanced and they play great defense, their only problem is they lack a real go-to scorer and may not be able to keep up with Miami's athletes. This should be a close game, the X-factor would have to be the scoring of guard Patty Mills for St. Mary's; he has played inconsistently down the strech and will need to be big for the Gaels to win. Finally, Texas will take down Austin Peay with extreme ease. DJ Augustin will play with the Peay guards and score plenty, or he might just decide to dish to his bigger and faster and stronger teammates (Peay has no starter over 6 foot 5) to dominate the paint and the glass, to open up the periemter for AJ Abrams and his three pointers. Won't even be close. Memphis will eke out a close one over Mississippi State, which could be their wake up call in the tournament. Dorsey's success inside will be important, because MSU has the athletes and size to match up pretty well with Memphis's perimeter players. I think Pitt will crush Temple with their scrappy style of play and the inside presence of Blair, who needs to stay out of foul trouble. Stanford will ride their 7-footers to victory over whatever overmatched forward will be guarding them from Marquette...Brook Lopez's scoring should counteract whatever points the Marquette guards come up with. Texas will take down Saint Mary's easily, as they did in the regular season. Texas has too many threats for the Gaels to guard, and the fantastic Longhorn backcourt will have their way. Pitt will pull off the upset and take down Memphis by slowing down the tempo and playing with a grinding pace that the Tiger's won't stomach; Blair can actually hang with Dorsey and they might get each other into foul trouble, and this just might come down to whatever team makes their free throws (both teams shoot them horribly). I think the physical pace this game will take favors Pitt. The Stanford guards won't be able to handle their Texas opponents, and while Brook Lopez might score a large share of points Augustin will control the tempo and if they're hitting their three than I say Texas in a blowout. Texas will ride their homecourt advantage and hot shooting from their backcourt to a close win over Pitt, and advance to the Final Four.

West

UCLA takes the number one seed in this region, where they take on a horribly overmatched 16 seed in Mississippi Valley State. The Bruins have the best defensive guards in the country, tenacious playmakers who force turnovers and control the ball better than anyone. They also have one of the top big men in the country in freshman Kevin Love...he may not look the part or run the fastest, but he's got the best fundamentals in the country. He finishes strong, can hit the three, and throws the best outlet passes I've ever seen; UCLA will get at least 2-3 transition buckets off of those every game. Darren Collison and Russell Westbrook are both extremly fast and set the tempo on defense...Westbrook is an outstanding athlete and finisher while Collison sets the tempo for the entire team with his leadership. Josh Shipp is also a very important scorer, and when he hits threes he gives the Bruins another dimension. They have trouble scoring sometimes, but if they can hit their outside shots they are unstoppable with that defense they have. Their defensive intensity and the poised play of UCLA's guards will be like nothing their opponents in the 1st round will have seen before, and I expect this to be a typical 1-16 blowout. Texas A&M has been up and down all year, struggling with shooting and guard play, but they have played much better down the stretch and they have some great big men; if they can get DeAndre Jordan going again then that adds another dimension to their game. BYU is a very good team that has dominated their conference and overacheived all season long. They have some great shooters and smart guards, but I think the Aggies have a lot more talent and their athletes in the paint and will come out with the victory. Drake vs. Western Kentucky is a fantastic battle of deadly mid-majors, basically two Cinderellas duking it out before they take on the Kings. Drake has been the best story of college basketball all year long, winning a conference title and getting to the tournament for the 1st time since the '70s with smart play, a lot of three point shooting, and some great pressure defense. Josh Young has been the big scorer, Adam Emenecker the poised and brilliant leader, and Klayton Korver the deep trey shooter. This is a very deep and balanced team, and everybody can really shoot it. WKU also has lots of sleeper talent and outside shooters...this game could be a back and forth battle of perimeter shots. I still think Drake is too good to lose...this season is destiny for them. UConn takes on San Diego, a Cinderella squad that put on a great run to win the WCC tourney and land in the NCAAs. The Huskies seemed to peek at the wrong time, playing better than everyone for a stretch midseason before fading towards the end and getting blown out in their conference tourney. It will be interesting to see which UConn team shows up, but they have the talent to make a pretty deep run if they can pull it all together. Hasheem Thabeet is an extremly tall and intimidating presence inside, especially on defense, while Jeff Adrien provides the consistent scoring and AJ Price the leadership at point. Jim Calhoun has never lost a 1st round tournament game in his tenure, and even if they're not playing great they will still beat an overmatched San Diego squad. Purdue, the surprise team of the Big Ten, takes on the great story of Baylor, a team that has come full circle since the basketball disaster of a few years ago and finally made the NCAAs. Purude came out of nowhere with a bunch of great freshman to finish 2nd in the Big Ten conference. Robbie Hummell is a great all-around hustle player and E'Twaun Moore is a fantastic three point shooter, and both frosh have played big roles in the Boilermakers success. Baylor has one of the most explosive and entertaining set of guards in the entire country, and they are lead by the high-scoring Curtis Jerrells. Baylor plays out of control at times and they can turn the ball over, and while Purdue plays more under control, the young Boilermakers have never seen guards like Baylor's before and I think the Bears keep their miracle season going. A very experienced, smart, and deep Xavier team takes on the ultimate Cinderella, 14 seed Georgia. Georgia was horrible all year long before winning 4 games in 3 days to win the SEC tournament. XAvier won't take them lightly with a great leader like Drew Lavender, and the Bulldogs will be too worn out from their miracle run to put up much of a fight against the balanced Musketeers, who can attack you in so many ways and play great defense. West Virgina is playing fantastic basketball lately, and while Arizona has loads of talent they seem disjointed and without leadership right now thanks to the absence of Lute Olson. Joe Alexander leads the Mountaineers in scoring and intensity; he is a fanastic athelete and shooter, and hardly anyone has played in his time zone the past few weeks. Arizona has a similar player in Chase Budinger, a very talented scoring guard in Jaryd Bayless, and a very tough, athletic post player in Jordan Hill, but they have yet to put all that talent together and play consistently and I don't see it happening against a very hot WVU team. Finally, Duke takes on Belmont. Duke played better than a lot of people expected this season, relying heavily on three point shooting, defense, and the individual scoring of Gerald Henderson to win games. Their reliance on the outside shot and lack of any inside scoring presence makes them vulernable, but they should still beat a little Belmont team that relies just as strongly on the three pointer. UCLA will frustrate the hell out of A&M's guards with their stingy defense, and pull out a close, low-scoring victory. Drake will pull out an upset over UConn with hot shooting and by forcing turnovers; I just feel something magical coming from Des Moines, Iowa and UConn is not playing like the UConn of old. Baylor will run into a much more disciplined and battle-hardened Xavier team with the guards to contain theirs' and the post players to cause problems for the Bears. They are just a better and more balanced team, and they've been here before. Duke will beat West Virgina with their defense, but they will need to hit their shots and get Gerald Henderson going or else West Virginia is going to ride their Duke-hatred to victory. The Mountaineers are playing hungry right now and I don't see anyone on the roster of the Blue Devils who can stop Alexander, but I'm still saying the Coach K team wins here. UCLA has athletes that Drake has never seen before, and the way they play defense I don't see Drake getting too many easy looks. I just see the Bulldogs getting overwhelmed here, and their miracle run will end. Xavier will beat Duke with balance and smart play, the way they have been winning all season. They have an inside scoring presence, which Duke lacks, and they don't have to shoot threes to win. This will be a low-scoring, defensive oriented game, and Xavier will win. UCLA-Xavier should be a great game, and whichever team can hit some shots will come up with the victory. Both squads play defense and are evenly matched, but if UCLA's athletes can get goin and force some turnovers then they might run away with it. It really all depends on which team shoots better, and I'm gonna go with UCLA to make their 3rd Final Four in a row, and win it this time. In my bracket, I have UCLA overcoming Texas with, you guessed it, defense. Love and Mbah a Moute will also have their ways inside. North Carolina will get revenge on Georgetown to advance to the championship game as well, riding a legendary performance from Hansbrough and making the Hoyas try to keep up with their blinding pace, which hardly anyone in the nation can do. In the championship game, I think Ben Howland gets his 1st title by slowing down the pace and frustrating Hansbrough and Lawson with defense. UCLA is on top again. In the real championship game, Kansas took down Memphis for the crown. Memphis played better than anybody from the Sweet 16 on, crushing each opponent on their way to a title game against a Kansas squad that just barely survived against Cinderella darling Davidson and then shocked the nation by jumping on Carolina 40-12 before rolling to a fairly easy victory!! Memphis really lost the title game before Kansas won it by missing free throws down the stretch that could have clinched it and not fouling Mario Chalmers soon enough before he hit the amazing tying three to send the game into overtime. It was one of the best championship games in memory, it's just too bad Memphis had to let it slip away like that. It's good to see that Kansas finally put their mass of talent and balance together to win the whole thing this year; they definitely proved they are the best team in basketball.
Posted by white_kong at 4:09 PM - No Comments   Add a Comment  
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Author: white_kong
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