My old posts and breakdowns on march madness got deleted, so im gonna do my best to re-write the damn things and preview how i thought this year's amazing NCAA tourney was going to go down. The east regional was obviously the most competitive and intriguing of the entire tournament, with tons of star-studded faces, evenly matched squads, and a young but talent laden number one seed in UNC that most experts were predicting would fall the earliest. Very unpredictable with perhaps the best potential matchup of the year, the kevin durant-led longhorns against the stacked tarheels, as well as having the most teams capable of reaching the final four from any region (UNC, texas, georgetown, washington state, and maybe usc). the tarheels start their run for a championship against the 16th seeded eastern kentucky university. no need to really go over this matchup, a 16 has never beaten a 1 so there is no reason to think that will happen this season, when the number 1 seeds are as strong as they have ever been. this has been a season that lacked a dominating team, but all the elite squads at the top have a lot of parity. the tarheels are perhaps the most talented team in the nation, or they at least have the most potential. they have shown their immense youth at times this year and there are so many good players they have trouble finding consistent go-to guys and such, but they have everyone from hard-nosed (literally) banger tyler hansbrough to super-long, silky smooth cleanup man brandan wright to the electric, speedy ty lawson. hansbrough is their star and emotional leader, great at getting to the free throw line and scoring down low with polished moves and pure effort. he must play well bouncing back from his broken nose fiasco and carry this team in scoring if want to go deep in the tourney, but the great thing about north carolina is that there is so much talent any one guy can take over at any time in the game. they should run away quickly with this 1st round game, look for a big early lead thanks to their dizzying transition game.
marquette vs michigan state is interesting because tom izzo of the spartans takes on former assistant tom crean at marquette. this should be close and highly competitive throughout, and these 8-9 games are always hard to predict. marquette relies on the play of their explosive guards, most notably much-hyped dominic james, who's speed, athleticism, and penchant for making exciting plays fuel the golden eagles. he has shot the ball horribly down the stretch and needs to hit from the outside for marquette to win this game, and the guards are all going to have to play great games to make up for the lack of a real inside presence to combat spartan brutes marquise gray and drew namak. fellow stud guard jerel mcneal is out with injuries so they will need someone else to step up, perhaps dan fitzgerald, who is the best outside shooter on the team. michigan state is simply an average squad this year unless drew neitzel is playing out of his mind, which can definitly happen. neitzel is one of the best big-game, streak-shooting guards in college basketball and the rest of the team feeds off his emotion and shots when he is hot from downtown. when he is cold they have trouble scoring points, because the only other real scoring threat who can create shots for himself is stellar, versatile frosh raymarr morgan. they are scrappy and play great defense but to carry the spartans past the golden eagles neitzel is going to have to be a hero and without the emotion of his home crowd behind him i see the MSU offense sputtering and marquette winning an ugly battle.
USC takes on an arkansas squad that shouldn't even be in the tourney, they made a late year run in the SEC tourney before they got blown out in the final, while the trojans made the finals of the pac-10 tourney as well before getting blown out by a red-hot oregon squad. the trojans have loads of young and explosive athletic talent, a proven coach in tim floyd, and definitly have the advantage of being able to sneak up on the mainstream, seeing as they weren't supposed to be very good until they got super-stud recruit oj mayo next season. nick young is a future nba lottery pick, a great athlete and scorer, while gabe pruitt is a threat to score from downtown and is another star. lots of young frosh have stepped up and shown their ability and this is a really dangerous, talented USC squad that could pull an upset or two with their bevy of talent on the perimeter, and if they are allowed to go on a run or get out in transition look for them to run away with this one. thats why i got them with a win over an equally young but less talented arkansas squad that is just lucky to be playing in march madness instead of more deserving teams such as syracuse, drexel, or west virginia. both teams lack post scoring threats but the guards of usc are greater than the guards of arkansas.
a kevin durant-themed texas squad takes on a resurgent new mexico state program led by energetic head coach reggie theus, who has done an amazing job turning the aggie b-ball program around, but everyone will be turned in to see what kind of scoring theatrics phenom durant will put up. he is a phenomenal player and the most offensively skilled frosh i have ever seen. if he just put some more weight on him he could be an nba superstar today. NMSU could put up a threat for a while because all the texas players are young and experiencing the tourney for the 1st time discounting aj abrams, so dj augustin might take a while to get his emotions in check and play under control, but as long as they can get to the ball to durant and get him rolling they should run away with this, they have much more talent even though the aggies will play hard.
a streaky vanderbilt squad takes on a long and athletic george washington team that got lucky in their conference tourney and made it in, look for them to keep it close for a while but get blown away by the hot shooting from downtown for vandy. they are a team that relies a lot on the 3-ball and like any squad that abides by this principle they can either beat anyone or lose to anyone if they get cold. they have a lot of offensive talent and athleticism though with the top offensive player in the SEC in derrick byers, but they are inconsistent. g-wash, like last year, has depth and speed and they like to push it but they don't have the talent to hang around for long.
washington state plays oral roberts, a popular upset pick for some who are questioning the legitimacy of the pac-10 or who haven't watched the great all-around play all year long from the cougars, who almost always played late at night. oral roberts is a solid mid-major with one of the best mid-major players around in crafty post scorer caleb green but WSU is underrated and they have the talent to go deep. they have an experienced and talented leader/playmaker in derrick low with good post players and shooters, not a team with great stars or athleticism or postseason experience but they are confident, they execute everything well, and they have a great young coach who will have them ready and not get upset by oral roberts.
a scrappy and tough boston college team takes on bobby knight's red raiders. it's not one of his best teams chemistry wise and they lack a true leader or point guard but they have some really special talent in places and a great scorer in jarrius jackson. martin zeno is their best all-around player, a tenacious defender and shifty scorer. they are talented enough to win against a depleted and simply average (but heart-filled) BC team, but i dont think it will happen. jared dudley is an amazing all-around player and leader for this team and he kept them together after the sean williams debacle, while tyrese rice has shown some explosive scoring and sean marshall proved he can hit from downtown. dudley should have his way inside and this should be a close matchup, it's hard to go against a knight-coached team but i think his squad is simply average and the toughness of BC will not be stopped today as they grind out a tough one and force tech to play their style.
finally georgetown, my championship pick, takes on little old belmont, a college in tennessee making their 2nd ever (and 2nd consecutive) march madness appearance. the hoyas have returned to prominence for sure, they have way too much size and athleticism for belmont, a team high on shooters but low on size and athletes, to contend and their experience will carry them through with ease as they will not overestimate them and will be sure to come out to play. jeff green, their all-around superstar, should make plays all day and 7 ft. 2 roy hibbert will have his way inside. hoyas cruise to an easy win in this one as the scrubs should see plenty of playing time.
the 2nd round kicks off with north carolina vs. marquette. i have a feeling the tar heels will take off quickly and run away with this one, UNC has guards just as quick and explosive as the golden eagles' but they are better shooters and should dominate in the post, with noone on this team having anyone capable of handling the brawn of hansbrough or the touch of brandan wright. the 'heels are just unbeleivably stacked and i don't see an average marquette team stopping them, dominic james is one of the most exciting and explosive guards around but he'll have to shoot the lights out for his team to have a chance, the balance and depth of UNC added to their run-and-gun style will allow them to build a big early lead that marquette will not be able to shoot their way into.
USC takes on texas, everyone has texas playing the tar heels in the next round but USC has enough overall talent that they could easily pull off an upset here. a lot of great athletes and young, future nba talent on display here but there is noone (surprise) that can match up with durant, who should have a monster game no matter what and will get to the free throw line at will. nick young and gabe pruitt of USC will have to have big games, they are very capable of doing this, and some of their young cats will have to step it up and texas's young cats will have to have poor games, which is possible as well. durant cannot do it all and augustine will have to develop a good rhythm with everyone and drive/score to the basket, and someone else needs to step up as a third scorer, most likely abrams, because USC has the depth and talent to give texas trouble, they are one of the most physically talented and all-around best teams this texas squad has ever faced, but i just don't wanna stop watchin durant play so i'll go with texas, though this should be close.
the dangerous vanderbilt commodores take on washington state, a solid and efficient team that i think could get to the final four if they drew an easier region in the bracket. everything depends on vandy's ability to knock down threes or get a run going on WSU, because the cougars don't really play a style that will allow them to launch a comeback in the game. derrick low will have to be great like usual and they will have to get major scoring production from somebody in the post. vandy's offense is potentially explosive and this should be a real battle these squads are both evenly matched and lack much for NCAA tourney experience. WSU will play heads-up and smart and they have a great coach, but so does vandy. tough one to pick but i'm goin with the sleeper Washington State.
boston college faces off against georgetown. you can bet that BC will play hard and with plenty of toughness, and confidence will not be a problem for them against the intimidating hoyas. but the talent is just not there for them, the hoyas have too much size and experience and they are one of the hottest squads in the nation, with tunnel vision towards the final four. jared dudley will have to play historically good and the role players will have to step up, but the main question will be can anyone stop roy hibbert and jeff green, there is noone on the eagles' roster able to contain these stars. look for BC to hang around at half-time but for georgetown to take over soon.
north carolina-texas is the matchup everyone has been waiting to see, an amazing exhibition of young, future nba-talent that has the potential to be a classic battle. north carolina is deeper and has more overall talent but texas has that durant fellow, the most offensively gifted freshman ever. the best individual matchup is possibly dj augustine-ty lawson, two lighting fast and explosive guards who love to push the tempo and create exciting plays for themselves and for the teammate. both can be out of control and inconsistent but both have star potential. on paper UNC has the athletes to guard durant but he will still get his numbers, potentially from the free throw line. texas obviously must get back in transition, but it is pretty much impossible to stop the high-powered attack of the tarheels. hansbrough and wright should get their way down low and if lawson can win the point guard battle and guys like wayne ellington and danny green get their shots than durant's scoring will not be enough for the longhorns. i got the stacked 'heels.
georgetown-washington state might be a blowout in my opinion. just like BC noone on the cougars' roster can stop the supersized roy hibbert or the versatile jeff green, and the size advantage will be the main factor to give the win to the hoyas. washington state is smart and they will play hard and with confidence but it won't be enough as they run into the resurgent and more talented hoyas.
to get to the final four the unfairly talented north carolina tar heels face off against the georgetown hoyas. this should be a classic battle and it would be ridiculous to try to analzye it, any team could come out on top. everyone would want to pick the 'heels on paper, they are stacked with former mcdonald's all americans and 5-star recruits and when all this talent comes together and plays well it is truly a spectacle to watch and they have the potential to win it all, but georgetown is playing dominate and with the confidence that they can win as well. they have not backed down and if they played their game they will beat anyone too. not only do the usual suspects of hibbert and green need to have good games but one of the guards is going to have to provide a thrid scoring option and shoot well from downtown, perhaps long-range bomber jonathan wallace or the offensively aggressive sapp. i'm going with georgetown because i like their size and experience advantage and they are playing hotter and with more confidence than anyone.
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