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Thoughts on basketball and football
Wednesday April 2, 2008
An amazingly balanced, talent-stacked Kansas squad, the Big 12 champs, nabbed the number 1 seed in this region, where they get to participate in a glorified scrimmage against the 16 seed, Portland State. Few teams in the nation have the size and depth to handle all the big bodies the Jayhawks throw at their opponents. They have 4 or 5 guys 6 foot 8 and taller who get solid minutes; they are lead by athletic finisher Darrell Arthur and big, strong banger Darnell Jackson, perhaps the most improved player in the nation. Sasha Kaun also plays a huge part in KU's success; the 7-footer plays a key role finshing off plays down low when other guys get pressured while also cleaning up the glass and anchoring the defense. The star of the team is Brandon Rush, a smooth and versatile scorer who has a pretty touch from deep. Guards Russell Robinson, Mario Chalmers, and Sherron Collins are all talented scorers, tenacious defenders, and capable ball-handlers who are versatile enough to play the point. Robinson is the best ball handler and a great defender, Collins is strong, athletic, and tenacious in attacking the basket, while Chalmers is the best three-point shooter. Probably the deepest and most overall talented team in the nation, but I still don't trust Bill Self to get this team to the Final Four. He has had great KU teams before but they have been unable to get over the hump, and even though this may be the best one yet, I still have to see Self get these talented teams into the Final 4 before I give them much credit. UNLV takes on Kent State in an 8-9 battle of mid-majors. Kent State has been one of the best mid-majors all season long, dominating their conference and playing hard against some good teams. UNLV has overacheived in a competitive Mountain West, and they have a great coach in Lon Kruger, but I think Kent State has more talent and I like their full body of work a little better than UNLV's, so I like the Golden Flashes. The red-hot Clemson Tigers take on Villanova in the 5-12, a team that was one of the last squads named to be in the tourney. Clemson is very fast paced and athletic; they play with great energy, attack the basket, and can beat anybody when they shoot well from the outside. Their inconsistent free throw shooting is often the catalyst for their victories, and they shot them so well in the ACC tournament that they got to the final. If they can carry the momentum from that experience into the tournament they will be hard to beat. 'Nova is another fast paced, inconsistent squad that relies on guard play...they don't have much of an inside presence, but neither does Clemson. Scottie Reynolds is one of the best scoring guards around and can really take over a game. Both of these teams play similar styles, but Clemson is on a role right now and I don't see them losing. Vanderbilt takes on an upset-minded Siena squad. Vandy is one of the most balanced and potentially dangerous teams around; they have a deadly senior perimeter scorer in Shan Foster, who is scary good from deep, and a big, fundamentally sound post player in AJ Ogilvy. They are too experienced and solid in all categories to lose to a Siena team that has plenty of three shooters and will need them to be hitting to stand a chance. I got Vandy big. USC versus Kansas State is perhaps the most hyped 1st round matchup of them all, pitting super-frosh OJ Mayo and Micheal Beasley in a battle of future NBA talent. Mayo may not have had the all-world 1st season everyone expected, but he still had an amazing year and was one of the most exciting perimeter scorers in the country, showing a quick 1st step and deadly shooting range. He improved as the year wore on and he became smarter with his shot selection, and I believe he has a better team around him than Beasley; a good point guard in DJ Hackett and an athletic, skilled post scorer in Taj Gibson. They are very athletic overall and came out of the stacked Pac-10 with a good record, so I'm picking them to beat a K-State team that did have a good year, but they have not played well down the stretch and I don't think they have enough around the incredible Beasley to win. Beasley plays lazy at times, but he has all of the skills you would want in a basketball player; size, speed, handle, shot extending beyond three point range, etc. He really is a near-perfect combination of talents. Bill Walker is also a tenacious athlete and strong rebounder, but outside of those two, who do they have?? USC is the better team here. Underrated Big Ten champ Wisconsin takes on Cal-State Fullerton, a team that might make this game closer than most people will think. Wisconsin is far from flashy and they rarely score loads of points, but they have tons of experience and more size than anybody but Kansas. Micheal Flowers is the glue guy; a great defender and athlete who seems to make all the big plays. Joe Krabbenhoft is a great blue-collar hustler who can score in a variety of ways, Trevon Hughes provides a big scoring spark and is dangerous from downtown, and Jason Bohannon provides a very pure three pointer from the bench. And that's not even their big guys. Brian Butch has finally lived up to some of his hype, playing tough inside all year and showing an improved touch from outside along with some leadership, while Greg Stiemsma is a large hunk of man and defensive anchor and Marcus Landry another talented glue-guy and dirty work player inside. The Badgers don't have a whole lot of athletcism though, and if a team is scoring a lot of points Wisky is gonna have a tough time outscoring them. They play smart, tough, and they stress defense, all testaments to their coach, Bo Ryan, and while they might get a test from the athletic, high-scoring CS-Fullerton squad, they will put them away and win solidly, mark my words. Gonzaga is not the mid-major king they used to be, while Davidson is lead by the amazingly sugar-sweet stroke of Stephen Curry, one of the most skilled and fun to watch offensive players in the country. His stroke will carry Davidson to a minor upset over an average Zags squad that relies too heavily on the scoring of Jeremy Pargo. And finally, the size and athleticism of Georgetown will take care of UMBC, an upstart team full of local Baltimore talent, as they have no one to stop Roy Hibbert and guards like Jonathan Wallace and Jessie Sapp can shoot the three as well.
Kansas will overwhelm Kent State in the 2nd round; I think Kent will put up a vailant effort, but the crazy amount of depth, size, and pressure that KU will throw at them will just expose Kent State as undermanned, and if Kansas can force a lot of turnovers and get KSU flustered early, than this one won't even be close. Clemson's inconsistent shooting from outside and from the free throw line will come back and bite them against Vanderbilt, a team with the talent and balance to be a sleeper pick. Shan Foster will be hot from downtown and AJ Ogilvy is an inside presence that Clemson won't be able to contend with. I think a more athletic, high scoring USC team will upset Wisconsin in the 2nd round. I worry about the size the Badgers will throw at them, and they are so experienced with a proven coach that they don't seem likely to be upset, but I just like USC's energy and potential to break out and play incredible, while Wisky doesn't have anyone who can guard OJ Mayo, who just might go off. Wisconsin's inside guys are going to have to dominate here, and I don't know if they can keep up the athleticism of the Trojans. And finally, a more experienced, deeper, and bigger Georgetown team will overcome another hot shooting performance form Curry and pull away for an easy win over Davidson. Hibbert will have a great game once again, and the Hoyas will get a large portion of inside buckets and offensive rebounds. I just don't see how the matchups will work here, unless Davidson is on a George Mason-style mission I think the Hoyas got this one. Kansas is simply too good in all areas to lose to a streaky Vandy squad that can be great when they are hitting on all cylinders but extremly average when they don't shoot well. The never-ending depth of KU, the defense, and the size will overwhelm Vandy like they have overwhelmed opponents all year long. USC will finally run into a brick wall with the Hoyas, who will slow the tempo down, play great defense, and run roughshod over the soft USC big men for a close, low scoring victory. I also have Georgetown over Kansas to get to the Final Four. Like I said before, I still don't trust Bill Self and his choke job history to get to the Final 4, even though I believe KU has the most talent of anybody in the country. G-town is one of the few squads around with the size to match up with Kansas, and the Jayhawks won't score as many transition points or force as many turnovers with the poised Hoyas guards and the grinding pace they play at. The Hoyas just play a style that Kansas doesn't matchup well with, and with Kansas's recent cursed history I'm willing to bet somebody goes cold and brings the Jayhawks painfully down once again.
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Sunday March 23, 2008
Well, before I get into my bracket picks, I should briefly touch up on my Hawkeyes and the local NBA squad, the Houston Rockets. The Iowa men's b-ball team lost to an equally hapless Michigan team in the 1st round of the Big Ten tourney, thus diminshing their "chances" for a miracle run fairly early. This game was perhaps the most boring, offensively challened battle of all the conference tournament games, as both teams went a combined 28 minutes in the 2nd half without scoring a field goal. It was a poor offensive showing, and our guys looked like they just wanted to get the season over with. After the game, the returning players were all positive about next year and seemed ready to get the show on the road. Yes, the players got mentally exhausted from all the losing at the end of this season and didn't play as hard, and yes, the players and coaches tuned each other out at times down the stretch as well, but I still think there will be improvement next season with all the good freshman coming in and the optimistic attitude of some pretty solid returning players. It just feels refreshing to have Lickliter's 1st recruiting class coming up, and with more experience in his so-called "system" and some fresh blood I think at least a few wins improvement and a potential NIT berth are very realistic expectations. I'll do a comprehensize, in-depth look at next year's b-ball team later in the year. The Iowa girl's team gets ready to play Georgia in the 1st round of the women's tournament tomorrow at 1:30 in the 8-9 seed matchup. I thought the girls deserved a better seed for sharing the Big Ten crown, but it is still a great accomplishment. If they beat Georgia, they will probably have to play North Carolina, which isn't good. Big, big congrats are in order for the Iowa wrestling dynasty, who clinched their 32nd national championship and 1st since 2000 today in the national tournament. Mark Perry and Brent Mentcalf also won individual titles. And finally, the Houston Rockets, who recently came off their high of a 22 game win streak. It was amazing the way they were able to keep it up, playing amazing defense, hustling hard for every loose ball on every possesion, and excecuting their offense efficiently while draining their jump shots. Without much of an inside presence, we all knew they couldn't play with such confidence and at such a crazy level forever, but after beating the Lakers last Sunday it looked possible. They ended up gettin blown out in consecutive days by the Boston Celtics and New Orleans Hornets, playing hard in both 1st halves but losing energy and scoring production in the 2nd halves of both and getting blown out in each game. Houston was really missing Yao Ming as well as the inside presence of Carl Landy, a high energy/athletic rookie who can finish with the best of them. He had been out a while with a bruised knee. Landy returned against Golden State on Friday and provided a big spark, while T-Mac poured in 26 and the Rockets beat the high-octane Warriors on their home floor. The next night Houston played hard and executed their offense well against the Suns, but Phoenix shot out of this world in the 1st half and Houston was in too deep a hole to climb out of. Still, playing well the last two games and anyone who says the streak was a fraud just hasn't watched enough of Houston.
East Regional
The number 1 overall seed of the East Region and of the entire tournament, North Carolina, has a very difficult path ahead of them in getting to the Final Four in San Antonio, perhaps the toughest of any number 1 seed. UNC is unfairly loaded with talent, though, so Tar Heels' fans should not be too concerned. The two players that immediately stand out to me are Tyler Hansbrough and Ty Lawson; Hansbrough is the hardest working player in college basketball, a strong inside player adept at drawing fouls and battling hard in the post despite heavy contact. Along with his scoring and boardwork, Tyler is a great leader and carried this team though a tough stretch of the season when Lawson was hurt. He may the best, most high-energy player in the country. Lawson is their speed-demon of a point guard, one of the fastest players around and the driving energy force behind this team. He is electric on the fast break and has the body to finish in traffic as well. If these two players were the only studs UNC had, they would be merely good; add the shooting of Wayne Ellington, the scoring of Marcus Ginyard, and the bench production from Danny Green, along with a bevy of other talent, and you have something great. It is needless to say that I expect the fast breaking and the overwhelming mass of athletic talent from Carolina to just roll over whatever opponenet they face from the play-in game between tourney newcomers Mount Saint Mary (1,500 student enrollment) and Coppin State (1st 20 loss team ever in the tourney). A 16 seed will upset a 1 seed someday, but not this year. The 8-9 matchup in this region is another intriguing game that could go either way, between Indiana and Arkansas. Indiana is a team with enough talent to make a deep run with maybe the best inside-outside combination in the country, with high-scoring freshman phenom Eric Gordon on the perimeter and rugged, experienced post leader DJ White on the inside, a definite battler and hard worker down low. There are major questions about the mental stability of this team though, after the resignation of embattled coach Kelvin Sampson because of recruiting violations. The players seemed to quit on interim coach Dan Dakich, and lost the mojo they had before the incident. Arkansas is an experienced team that plays great defense, and they are on a roll after making their way to the SEC tournament final with an upset of Tennessee. They have a lot of leadership and a lot of hard nosed guys, like physical guard Patrick Beverly, and I know Indiana might not be all there mentally, but I think the Hoosiers have the talent to pull this game out and play UNC in the next round. Notre Dame versus George Mason in the 5-12 game seems to be a popular upset pick, as G-Mason made that miracle Final Four run two years ago and people are still taking a ride on their bandwagon. I don't buy it. GMU has only one experienced player left from that legendary team, and they don't have the experience or the overall talent to beat a Notre Dame team that can shoot lights out and put up points in a hurry. Luke Harangody should dominate the slighter Will Thomas inside, while Kyle McAlarney lights it up from deep. The Irish in a rout. Washington State takes on dangerous mid-major power Winthrop, a team playing hard for the memory of a slain teammate. Winthrop rides the scoring of guard Micheal Jenkins, but they just don't have enough to counteract the experienced, talented guards of WSU and their stifling defense and depth. WSU plays some of the best defense around and Jenkins will have a tough time putting up 20, while the Cougars are led by Derrick Low, their sharpshooting Hawaiian leader, and Kyle Weaver, a versatile athlete, talented scorer, and tenacious defender. The experience and all-around play of WSU is too much for Winthrop here. Saint Joseph's is my upset special over Oklahoma. I think St. Joe's is one of the hotter teams around, beating A-10 power Xavier twice in the last month, and I like the chances of this streaking squad against a shaky Sooner team that played up and down all year long and really needs inside beast Blake Griffin to be 100 percent healthy if they want to win a game or two here. Oklahoma has a much better inside game and more overall talent, but St. Joe's has a great coach and can beat anybody if the shots are falling. Louisville will roll the 14 seed Boise State, a team that is just happy to be in the tournament. Louisville is one the most talented teams in the country and they play amazing full-court defense that is enough to rattle the most experienced guards around, let alone Boise State. They have a guard who can light it up in Edgar Sosa, a strong/skilled post player in David Padgett, and a bevy of other athletes and scorers such as David Caracter, Terrence Williams, and Juan Palacious. Louisville is way too good for this one to be any less than a blowout. A great Butler team takes on dangerous South Alabama in an intriguing matchup of mid-majors. Butler got the shaft on their seed, but they have way too many battle-tested players and experienced, smart leaders to lose this one. AJ Graves is a great all-around player who can make it drop from deep, but discovered ways to score and make plays without draining threes this season, while Mike Green provides the all-around spark that makes the team go. South Alabama is very talented and should not be taken lightly, but Butler is too experienced and too smart to lose, especially if it's raining threes. Finally, the last matchup is number 2 seed Tennessee versus the 15, American. The Volunteers are perhaps the most athletic, frenetic team in the nation, overwhelming the senses with their ultra-fast, up and down style of play and full-court pressure. They were a good team last year, but Tyler Smith, a very smart all-around star and great athlete who transfered from Iowa, put them over the top and became their best player. He makes the great passes, comes through with the clutch buckets and defensive players, and just provides that glue that holds them together. They have all sorts of athletes and scorers, led by deep trey specialist Chris Lofton, the two other Smiths (Ramar and JaJuan), athletic post presence Wayne Chism, and bench energy guys like the long/lean JP Prince and the scrappy Duke Crews. They play out of control and undisciplined at times, but they have way too many athletes and if they come out with just a little bit of intensity they will overwhelm little American, a team that will play hard and with a loose energy because they're happy to be there, but they just don't have the horses to keep up. North Carolina should take on Indiana, and move on fairly easily to the Sweet 16. Indiana is too mentally worn out, and it just seems like they lost that comptetive fire for this season. Hansbrough's crazy intensity will juxtapose with the halfhearted efforts of Indiana's post players, and unless Gordon and White get 25+ apiece than Carolina has too much talent and too much desire to lose this one. Washington State will ride their stingy defense and some cold shooting from Notre Dame to get by in a un-Irish like low scoring affair, while WSU's experienced guards will make enough shots to offset the production Harangody will likely put out. WSU won't give Notre Dame many open looks though, so I'm goin with the Cougars here. Losuiville should blow out St. Joseph's with that vicious full-court defense, forcing plenty of turnovers and getting transition buckets. Padgett will control the paint and get open looks for guys like Edgar Sosa and Justin Smith, and there's nobody here to guard Terrence Williams. The 'ville in a blowout. Butler runs into a Tennessee team that, on paper, looks like they are on a different level, but Butler's advantage comes with their brains. Tennessee is a team that doesn't really play with their heads, but they take advantage of their fantastic athleticism and limitless energy to pressure the hell out of teams and overwhelm them with all the offensive options and bodies flyin everywhere. I guess it's what you call organized chaos. Butler can win this if they settle down, handle the Vols pressure, and most importantly, make their three point shots. AJ Graves will be important. But I think UT overwhelms the Bulldogs early and puts them in a hole they can't climb out of. The Tarheels now take on WSU in the Sweet 16. UNC will more than likely be held below their average, Washington State will do their damndest to slow the pace down and rely on their defense and outside shots, but it's nearly impossible to slow down the electric Ty Lawson and you can bet Hansbrough will get his down low. This one should be Carolina's closest game, but once again, their talent advantage and frenetic pace come through for the win. Louisville should get the minor upset over Tennesse in the next matchup. It will be interesting to see if they try to press UT, a team with just as many, if not more, athletes than them. Chris Lofton making his fadeaway threes is a big key for the Vols, because it should be evenly matched in every other category, ranging from defense to athleticism to post scoring. Should be a great game, whichever team limits their turnovers and maintains control should win, I think UT's out of control style might come and bit them here. And finally, the Regional Final, UNC and Louisville. Perhaps the best Elite 8 game of the tourney, UNC should have their hands full with the playmaking defense and athletes of the Cardinals. There's few advantages I can hand out to either squad, Carolina's defense is vulnerable at times because of the pace they play at, and if Lousiville's perimeters players can step up the scoring and make long range shots than they have a chance, but I just don't see UNC losing. Hansbrough is leading them on a mission to the Final Four and he won't let these guys lose. UNC in a close one.
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Tuesday March 11, 2008
It's been awhile since I've given any updates on Iowa's fortunes, but with such a long break between our finale against Northwestern and our opening BTT game against Michigan I gave myself some leeway. 1st off, congrats are in order for the Iowa women's basketball team, which finished the regular season with a share of the conference crown before losing in the semis of the BTT to Purdue. They should still be rewarded with a high seed in the NCAAs and hopefully they can continue their great year and go on a good run, this is definitely a senior laden squad with a lot of heart and toughness. The Iowa wrestlers are also getting back to the dominate dynasties of the 80s and 90s, winning the Big Ten regular season and tourney titles for the 1st time since 2004 before the upcoming nationals, where we will be able to tell if Iowa wrestling truly is back. The boys ended up getting a much needed, very stressful yet entertaining win over the Wilcats in Evanston in a high octane game that I was afraid we were going to throw away at the end. We played about as perfect as possible out of the gate and jumped out to a huge lead, but we grew complacent and let NU get back in it before halftime. They made more threes in the 2nd to keep it close, but our guys countered with big shots of their own, from everyone, and played the defense necessary to get a big win that is needed for their confidence. NU dug themselves in too big of a hole to come out of, even though they made this a back and forth contest and made enough shots at the end to make it scary. Kelly had a fantastic offensive night with 18 huge points, while JJ found his stroke and nailed 5 threes, Freeman and Tate added plenty more double digit points along with leadership and poise, Looby played with an all-out energy on defense, and Gorney clinched the game with free throws. Freeman earned 3rd-team all conference honors, the only Hawkeye to earn any such honor, as he lead the team all year and provided poise and consistent shooting. Looby was our sportsmanship award winner because of his great attitude and love for the game he just barely learned. Our boys should come out fired and want to get revenge for UM coming back and embarassing us at Carver for our BTT game, and I look for us to win against a team with some talent, but also a team in a similar situation as us with the inconsistency and coaching change. While I address this, I can't forget about my Houston Rockets, who beat the Nets easily tonight for their 19th straight win!! I haven't forgotten about them or jumped off the bandwagon, just quiet on the blogging front. Their defense, the scoring of T-Mac, and the unselfish confidence of all the role players have made them a true contender even without Yao and I look for them to win at least a playoff series. Mutombo has been so inspiring all year and really embodies the attitude of this team. The streak has been too incredible for words, and it's neat to see the fans fill up the Toyota Center every game and create a real homecourt advantage, kind of a tough thing to do in the NBA. Big showdown with the Lakers on ABC this Sunday to see if we can keep the streak live.
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Saturday March 1, 2008
Well, I'm gonna make this short and sweet. To say this has been a tough week is an understatement; we blow a 7-point lead late and lose to Penn State in a crowd of about 37 at Happy Valley and then come out flat and lose to a cruddy Illinois team at home, in front of a packed Carver crowd with basketball recruits watching, on Senior Night!! AHHH!! This season has made me bald from all the hair-tearing I have done. Lickliter looks like he's at a loss for words; in the loss to Illinois tonight the players weren't even responding to him half of the time. This has definitely taken its toll on him. I knew we'd be bad with the lack of talent we have, but I still wish they would buy into Lickliter's system and at least play smart!! Against Penn State we shot the ball extremly well from long range distance, but our usually stupid play, poor work on the boards, and poor defense combined with one of our typical shooting droughts dwon the stretch led to a Penn State comeback and eventual one-point win. I thought we would have the intensity to beat Illinois for our seniors, and a few players did, but the whole team definitely did not show up to play and we struggled with scoring, turnovers, and defensive lapses all night long. Freeman delivered a magnificient 13-15 performance from the free throw line, but the rest of the team was only 16-27. That hurt. Just a tough week all around, and I was hoping we'd get some momentum to make one of those miracle runs in the Big Ten tourney, but now lets just see if we can show up against Northwestern and upset some people in the Big Ten tourney. At this point a win would be nice, but I'm definitely not expecting it...
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Sunday February 24, 2008
Well anybody who caught another one of Iowa's semi-embarassing showings on national television yesterday definitely saw a work in progress. We haven't won a game at the fearsome Breslin Center since 1993, and almost all of the losses since then have been lopsided blowouts. Even our great 2005-06 team that finished second in the conference and won the Big Ten tournament got a 40 point beatdown here. So I guess give the guys credit for only losing 66-52 and showing some heart, but trust me, it could have been a lot worse. No motion on offense, no energy by anyone but Cyrus Tate in the 1st half, no field goals until about 11 minutes had passed in the 1st half(!), no outside shooting, no consistent free throw shooting by anyone but, you guessed it, Cyrus, and just too many mistakes by a young team that is the epitome of "up and down." The field goal drought to start the game was one of the most painful yet hilarious things I have ever watched as a Hawkeye fan; I honestly didn't think we'd get past 5 points, especially when it culminated in a 20-1 MSU lead. I guess it set the tone for the half when Freeman got fouled on a three pointer and only made one free throw. We got back in it and shockingly went on a nice little run there, not seeming flustered like Hawkeye teams in the past have been, spurred on by Gorney's long shot and Kelly's baseline drive for a layup, as Cyrus Tate started doing the big man's work once again in providing his usual cleanup of the boards and slippery finishes down low. We also started getting him the ball again and he definitely responded with production, getting us back in the game. MSU kind of stomped on our faces at the end of the 1st though, scoring two pretty buckets to end the half as if to say "you really thought you had a chance?" 31-18 at the half, tough to overcome on the road but not nearly as bad as it could have been as MSU went on a little drought of their own. Throughout the second half MSU maintained a steady lead over us and the outcome was never really in doubt, but our guys hung in there and kept fighting, making sure we weren't embarassed or blown out. Our guys just don't seem to grasp the offense, as they just stand around and wait for something to happen, but the heart they showed in not bowing down easy is something the guys probably wouldn't have done in the Alford era, at least in my opinion. Cyrus was amazing again, finishing with 26 points and 9 boards, along with a very nice 6-7 performance from the free throw line, showing how hard he worked to improve that area of his game. He had the most intensity and energy from the start, and played his role to perfection. Kelly also provided some nice scoring, while Gorney made a few shots but seemed to regress as far as his effort on the boards and his energy. Freeman definitely wasn't much of a leader today, as he played a quiet role, but I bet he'll come out hot the next game. That's the type of player he is. Justin Johnson continues his disappearing act...maybe I'm not so sad to see him go after this season. Peterson played pretty well and showed a little playmaking spark, but he is going to have to cut down those turnovers for next year. I think he will. No one else really did anything significant. Another tough loss for the boys, but not really unexpected. They didn't get blown out by 20, 30, or 40, simply 14, one of the lowest deficits we have had in the Breslin Center ever. I guess that is a step forward, but just between you and me, this is not a very good MSU team either. I still like what Lickliter's doing and yearn for the days when the players will grasp his offense and take it to the top of the Big Ten.
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