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Thoughts on basketball and football
Archive for 200804 ( return to current blog )
Friday April 25, 2008
This year's NBA playoffs have been one of the most exciting in years, with the parity and crazy competetiveness in the West and the Celtics return to glory in the East, there are just so many fantastic storylines and close battles to follow. To start things off, Kobe Bryant and Pau Gasol have lead the Lakers to a 2-0 lead over the Denver Nuggets early in their series. The Nuggets' inability to focus and play hard on defense have just killed them, as we all knew it would. They have loads of star offensive talent and some good overall depth, and they play at a blinding pace that puts up big points in a hurry, but their lack of defense just makes it almost impossible to win games. Teams are putting up 120 on them on a regular basis. Kobe also came out big time in Game 2 with a fantastic 49 point performance, and Gasol had 36-16-10 in Game 1, so L.A. is getting huge contributions from both superstars. The Lakers play great defense, they have great depth around Kobe, and last of all, they have the best player in the NBA in Kobe Bryant, just a vicious and unstoppable scoring machine. Pau has been the big difference, scoring plenty in the post and helping the offense flow with more fluidity thanks to his pretty passing. Lamar Odom has provided his usual versatility on the offensive end and Derek Fisher has been a great leader. Luke Walton is a valuable glue guy off the bench, along with Sasha Vujacic and Ronny Turiaf. Allen Iverson has poured his heart out and put up great scoring numbes as usual for the Nuggets, and JR Smith has been a huge scoring boost off the bench, but noone is playing defense. Melo has been good, not great, and Kenyon Martin has been up and down. Denver's next game at home will determine who wins this series...it's already a known fact that the Nuggets can score, but if they don't buckle down on defense in Game 3, than Denver will be going home in the 1st once again and the heat on George Karl's seat should be pretty hot. Melo might also be on the trading block, as he hasn't been able to lead this team and get them to play over the top. We'll see what happens, at least these games should be entertaining.
An undermanned Houston team lead by Tracy McGrady, who actually hasn't ever gotten out of the 1st round, just in case you haven't heard that one before:), is down 2-1 to the Utah Jazz after gutting it out for a surprising victory at Energy Solutions Arena last night. The Jazz are a better overall team because the Rockets are lacking their dominate center, Yao Ming, but Tracy has been elevating his game to the superstar standards we are used to seeing from him and the role players have stepped up to make the team competetive. Houston really missed Rafer Alston in the first two games in Houston, where the Rockets lost both, but Houston got him back for the 1st one in Utah and he made a huge difference, running the offense well and hitting outside shots. T-Mac got a lot of blame for sub-par 4th quarters in the 1st two home losses, but with the talent difference between these two teams everyone on the Rockets has to play a near-perfect game to have a chance to win. McGrady did pick it up majorly in the 4th, with 7 points, in the win at Utah. The Jazz have a deadly pick and roll combo going with unstoppable point guard Deron Williams and the strong Carlos Boozer, who also has an effective mid-range shot. Utah also has a bevy of players I like to call assassins, or otherwise average guys who can shoot and seem to always hit the big shots that just kill the opponent's momentum. Mehment Okur is a matchup nightmare with his size and his three point shot, Matt Harping is a bully of a player who always muscles his way around for 10-12 points, Kyle Korver has one of the prettiest shots in the NBA, and even high octane backup point Ronnie Price has hit some backbreaking three pointers. Utah also has a great inside bench player in Paul Milsap and a rising star in super-athlete Ronnie Brewer. They are just a deeper and better team, but Houston gets by with excellent defense and fantastic efforts from bench players to complement the scoring of T-Mac. Luis Scola and Carl Landry are two draft surprises picked up in the 2nd round this year, and both have been huge. Scola is a deadly scoring threat and he plays harder than anyone, while Landry is one of the strongest finishers in the league. Rafer has played the best ball of his career, especially during that amazing 22-game winning streak, and he's a vital leader for this team. Bobby Jackson gives the team a frenetic source of energy and outside shooting off the bench, Shane Battier is the team's best defender and a deadly spot-up shooter, while the amazing Dikembe Mutombo has found new energy in his old bones and been an incredible inspiration to his teammates, blocking shots and getting boards like the old days. It will be a tough task to win two in a row on the road in Utah, but with the heart and toughness this Houston team shows I think they have a good shot. They finally got Utah for the 1st time in 5 tries, and with T-Mac getting started in the 4th I see this as going to 7 and Houston pulling out an amazing comeback win.
The San Antonio Spurs already have a 3-0 lead on a Phoenix Suns team that was really hopin that this would be the season they came over the top and had a shot at the title; that's why they got Shaq, to battle big men like Tim Duncan on defense. The Suns haven't played poorly overall in this series, but after losing Game 1 in double overtime, which was perhaps the best Game 1 of all time, it just seemed like that was a punch in the gut and they have had a tough time recovering. That, and the Spurs have played some absolutely amazing basketball, the kind they usually do come playoff time. The way they are brutally efficiently murdering the Suns, I can easily see them putting up another championship banner. Duncan hitting a three to send Game 1 into double overtime really set the tone here. Parker has had his best playoffs as a pro, continuing the beautiful show he put on in last year's Finals and scoring at will with his speed and elusive moves. Duncan has been Duncan, consistent domination in the low post, while Manu Ginobli has been doing the usual scoring and big shot hitting. Steve Nash appears to be finally wearing down, and I have a sad feeling his time in the league is running out. He still has an amazing mastery of the court and a great outside shot, but physically he's having a tough time. Grant Hill and Leandro Barbosa have been offensive no-shows, while Raja Bell has had some difficulty guarding Ginobli. Amare Stoudemire is dominating like usual, but is the only one player consistently scoring big points. And Shaq hasn't made that much of an impact because he's been in a lot of foul trouble and Phoenix players haven't been hitting enough outside shots, so his production and surprisingly decent free throw shooting have been negated. I don't think the Suns have enough left, and their role players aren't playing well enough, to come back and even win a game in this series, let alone win the whole thing.
The New Orleans Hornets, the surprise team of the NBA this year, take on the 7-seed Dallas Mavericks, who finally came together to end the regular season and played the best ball they had played since the controversial Jason Kidd trade. A lot of people were picking Dallas because of the playoff inexperience of the Hornets, but Dallas is not a complete team mentally and they don't have a great big man. I just think New Orleans has more talent, and Kidd doesn't stand a chance guarding Chris Paul, who I think is already the best point guard in the league. Paul is so fast and unstoppable off the dribble, he controls the floor like Steve Nash, has consistent 12-18 assist games, and can take over games with his scoring and outside touch as well. He needs to work on his outside shooting a little bit more but is already the best point guard in the NBA, and Kidd doesn't have the legs anymore to guard him. He is the reason I'm picking New Orleans to finish what they have started in grabbing a 2-1 series lead and put Dallas out, because he has not played like this is his 1st playoffs. The Hornets destroyed Dallas in the 1st two games, but the Mavs responded at home, where New Orleans hasn't won since '98, and Dirk played fantastic to lead them to a victory. David West needs to score about 20 with his midrange excellence, Tyson Chandler needs to play with a ton of energy as far as blocking shots and getting dunks, and Peja needs to drain the open threes he is sure to get. These are all things NO did in the 1st two games but didn't do in Game 3. The bench scoring of Bonzi Wells and Jannero Pargo is also vital for New Orleans, because they don't have a whole lot when the starting 5 goes out. Dallas needs Dirk to play like a superstar everynight, like he did in Game 3, and for Jason Kidd to push the ball and get the team easy buckets like the J-Kidd of old. Josh Howard needs to snap out of his slump and start scoring, and Jason Terry needs to hit his outside shots. Whether it's the strong Erik Dampier or the undersized but quicker Brandon Bass, Dallas also needs a big man to step up and play well against Chandler and Hilton Armstrong, who will play some for the Hornets just to match the bulk of Dampier. I think this will be a pretty even series but Chris Paul won't let his team lose.
I'll breeze quickly through the Eastern Conference, where I see Boston coming out, just not so particularily unscathed after dropping one in Atlanta in Game 3. I thought the Celtics would blow by the Hawks easily; they are an inexperienced, undisciplined, and can't shoot the ball consistently. Boston has the best big three in the NBA, led by the super-intense Kevin Garnett, sharpshooter Ray Allen, and all-around scorer Paul Pierce. The offensive emergence and increased confidence of Rajon Rondo has also been huge in Boston's breakthrough, along with the improved play of big man Kendrick Perkins and bench guys like Leon Powe, Glen Davis, and James Posey. They are a complete team that has a balanced offense that can score in a variety of ways, fantastic defense, and the best leadership of any team around. Lots of playoff hunger, and I just didn't think Atlanta would be able to match the execution and the bodies Boston would send at them. For the 1st two games, Boston dominated exactly as I thought. But the athletic and energetic Hawks, led by sky walker Josh Smith, who has emerged into an amazingly entertaining player, came back and flat out controlled the intensity in one of the best crowds to see a Hawks game ever. Should be an entertaining series now, but with all the good vets on this team Boston will regain their form and control the rest of the series. Cleveland relies way too much on Lebron, the rest of the supporting cast is inconsistent at best, but the Wizards don't play consistent defense and they have too many selfish one-on-one players. Neither of these teams is elite, especially with Washington having a hobbled Gilbert Arenas, but just to see Lebron is reason enough to watch. Cleveland has a 3-1 lead, and Lebron won't let them lose it. The most irrelevant series in the entire playoffs is Orlando versus Toronto, where neither team has a legit shot at the title. Dwight Howard is the best young big man in the game, a vicious rebounder and monster finisher around the basket, but Chris Bosh should give him a run for his money with his offensive skills and exceptional quickness and length. Should be an entertaining individual matchup, but the series will probably depend on the point guard battle, between Orlando's Jameer Nelson and whoever plays for Toronto (TJ Ford or Jose Calderon). Hedo Turkoglu will also have to continue his very impressive scoring. Neither of these teams is very complete or consistent, but some talented young big men are on display. Orlando is up 3-1, but if Toronto can push it and get Orlando out of their post up game they can get back in it. And finally, the Philadelphia 76ers are tied 2-2 with the aging Detroit Pistons. The Pistons are viewed all over as a team that has a bad habit of playing nonchalant basketball, but they can turn on the switch at any time. They still have tons of veteran experience and clutch talent/chemistry, but the young, athletic 76ers are eager to overtake them. So far, Phila. has played with a reckless energy and at a blinding pace that has made Detroit look like they are playing in quicksand. Turnovers and careless offense/defense have hurt Detroit, and they are far from the same team that they were a couple years ago, but the 76ers are also far from perfect and they struggle to shoot and score in the halfcourt, lacking a true offensive big man. Detroit should be able to pick it up and control the rest of this series, they have more talent and valuable playoff experience. They are not the elite team they used to be though, and I see them losing in the 2nd round.
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Sunday April 13, 2008
Iowa football has been an immense disappointment for the past three years; we were expected to rise into the consistent elite of college football but instead have shifted into irrelevance, especially after the no-bowl postseason of last year. Once again, our schedule is one of the easiest in the nation, missing the big boys of Ohio State and Michigan. Besides the running backs and the linebackers, almost everybody is returning to a team that struggled with consistency and that elusive 1st down for much of last season. The offense was efficient and rarely turned the ball over, but really had trouble scoring and in all facets of the offense. The offensive line played poorly, our quarterback was inconsistent at best, and our play-calling was questionable and conservative, not sticking enough to our strong running game. The defense was overall fantastic, but being on the field for so long at times with our poor offense just got them exhausted and eventually they would inevitably wear out and give in. You still have to question the lack of blitzes in our defensive play-calling as well. But with so many players back, our off-field woes that defined last season seemingly behind us, and all of those young wideouts with a year of experience under their belts, I truly believe (once again) that surprises are in store for the coming season. I think we will have a hungry attitude to prove all the doubters wrong, and with the valuable game time everyone got last year and the very manageable schedule, I think we can sneak up and have a shot at the Big Ten crown. I'm ready for Kinnick to be sacred ground once again, for players to represent the university well off the field and on, and for Kirk Ferentz to show the nation that he still is the best in the business and lead Iowa back to the top where we belong. We start the year off at Kinnick against 1-AA Maine, the school where Kirk coached before coming to Iowa. He should be willing to beat his old team by at least 35. There will be no excuse for not blowing these guys out in this glorified scrimmage. The next opponent isn't much better; Florida International is a fledgling program just getting their D1 start, and they should be our tackling dummies when they come to Kinnick. I never want to dismiss an opponent like that, especially after the upset spectacle that was last season, but if we want to get back to Big Ten championship form we have to take care of these opponents. Iowa State then comes to play us at Kinnick this season; there are a lot of people who want to end this rivalry because the damn Cyclones have been giving us fits ever since Dan McCarney took over there in the late '90s, but it is good for the state and always gets the people excited. We should beat them, because like usual we have more talent on paper, but you can't play these games on paper and ISU always comes to play against us. You'd think we should beat them at Kinnick, but you cannot take anything for granted in this series. It should be a great game and a great atmosphere, but very unpredictable. Will be looking forward to this one, as usual. The toughest and most hyped nonconference game we have comes next, when we take on Pittsburgh at their place. People have been saying Pitt is on the rise for years, but they have yet to live up to expectations. They finally showed a spark of promise at the end of last season when they beat West Virginia and kept them out of the national title game, so they just might be a sleeper team this year, and will be dangerous no doubt. I just don't see them living up to expectations though, and I think this will be a good game with Iowa having a chance to win. The Big Ten season starts off as easy as can be expected as well, with a date against Northwestern at Kinnick. The Wildcats have given us hell recently but we finally stopped the curse and got revenge at Ryan Field last year. We can never take them lightly, but this is a game we must have. We then have two road dates against Michigan State and Indiana, neither of them the most intimidating road environments. MSU is a dangerous squad that appears to be on the rise with head coach Mark Dantonio, but they are losing some offensive and defensive talent from last season. This may be our toughest road test though; they will want revenge after our double overtime victory last season. Indiana won't be nearly as scary as they have been the last two years, with Hawkeye-killer James Hardy departing to the draft and QB Kellen Lewis suspended indefinitely. Their homecrowds are rarely even half-filled, so this isn't the most deadly road environment in the world. I think Indiana falls to build off of last year's success and Iowa beats them again, finally. Next up is a big home game against Wisconsin, a rivalry game against a much-hated team that has beat us two years in a row after a 6 year period of Iowa dominance. Will be a vital game if we want to challenge for the big crown. The Badgers will have a great defense and a physical running game, but we almost beat them last season and I think the players will be ready to win this one. Next up is a road date at Illinois, last year's surprise Big Ten runner-ups and representatives in the Rose Bowl. They lose all-world back Rashad Mendenhall and need to find a capable replacement or else they're going to be one dimensional, and Juice Williams is not going to lead them to the Big Ten title. This is a very winnable game for Iowa. A home date against Penn State finishes off this tough stretch. Penn State loses inconsistent QB Anthony Morelli and their All-American linebacker Sean Lee is out for the season with a torn ACL, but they will still be a solid bunch with a pretty good defense. The development of a QB will be vital there. Again, especially with this game being at Kinnick, this is very winnable. Purdue comes to Kinnick the next week. They killed us last year with a little dose of Dorien Bryant and some horrible offensive play. Well, Bryant is gone, but Purdue's offense still figures to be explosive with QB Curtis Painter returning as a senior and the running backs returning. Purdue's improved defense will be the guy, but you'd think our players will be ready to get revenge for last season's embarassing 34-6 defeat. The last game of the season is the obligatory Battle for the Floyd of Rosedale at the Metrodome against Minnesota, the worst team in the Big Ten last year by a long shot. They somehow landed a great recruiting class, but they probably won't reap the fruits of these rewards for at least a year or two. I still expect them to be below-average.
The two biggest questions for the Iowa Hawkeyes next year are on offense, at QB and running back. Our offense was very poor last season, and the real only bright spot for the last 5 or 6 games was Albert Young and Damian Sims, our running backs. Young put the team on his shoulders for a couple games, and Sims had two TDs in a win over Northwestern. But both of them are gone. The guy who is back is Jake Christensen, our inconsistent (at best) leftie quarterback who missed high and wide and low and just about everywhere else in a season where he showed us the strength of his arm but also some very poor accuracy. He didn't checkdown to his 2nd and 3rd options enough and took way too many sacks, getting happy feet and not throwing the ball away. He needs to show that he's more comfortable in the pocket and more decisive when he chooses to run and pass, and not take big sacks that kill a drive. Our offensive line was a major reason there was so much pressure, but Jake still needs to get rid of the ball quicker, whether it goes into somebody's hands or sails out of bounds. I know he has the arm to be successful and he had a fantastic attitude last season, and I applaud Kirk for not tryin to create an unneeded QB controversy by putting someone else in, but this season it will be a different story if he struggles, because there will be better backups waiting in the wings. Ricky Stanzi is the 2nd string guy right now, a sophmore who played amazing in our annual spring scrimmage and really got the fans talking about our QB situation. He is taller than Jake and much more decisive, and he's able to make a lot of softer, touch passes that Jake seemed incapable of last season, such as the screen pass. Jake played well in the spring game as well and he does have Big Ten experience, but if he struggles early in the year, say against Iowa State or Pitt, than Kirk shouldn't hesitate to give Stanzi a try. Currently, Marvin McNutt is the 3rd string guy. He's a raw leftie and a fantastic athlete who is still getting all the mechanics and nuances of passing down, but he has potential to be a good QB someday. We also have three QBs coming into the program next year who were at the spring game but obviously couldn't play because they're still seniors in high school. James Vandenberg is a record-setting stud from Keokuk, Iowa who seems to have all the tools in his repitoire, but he never played amazing competition in high school. His superstar stats should get him a good look though and he might be a good one. One of the most exciting prospects is Chris Wienke, who had committed to Michigan before their coaching change. Wienke was one of the top quarterbacks in the nation, a pro-style passer with seemingly all the mechanics and skills of the traditional drop-back QB. And finally, there's David Blackwell, a fantastic athlete who may be moved to linebacker or reciever when he comes to the program. A lot of big SEC schools were recruiting him, but Iowa was the only school that gave him a chance to play QB, so we'll see what happens there. It's getting to be quite the logjam at the position.
Running back is incredibly thin right now in the spring, with only one scholarship back practicing as we wait on three of them that are coming in the fall. Jevon Pugh would have been our only returning back with any carries in a regular season game, but he got homesick and went back to Florida. So now, our number 1 guy in the spring is Paki O'Meara, a walk-on from Cedar Rapids whose power and hard work must be impressing Coach Ferentz. It's great to see him getting recognition for his hard work, but it's unrealistic to think that he'll still be the number 1 guy come fall. Nate Guillory, a juco transfer from Texas, is the only guy on scholarship right now. He's a little guy with blazing speed and a taste for the home run. He still needs to work on his blocking ability and to run for small gains sometimes instead of going for the 20-yard run everytime, but he has explosive potential and could easily be the number 1 guy here pretty soon. Special-teams menace Jayme Murphy, a tough and physical player with tons of big hits on his highlight reel, has also been tryed at running back but the walk-on banged up his back in the spring. Next fall, we'll have junior Shonn Greene coming back to the program after spending a year at Kirkwood Junior College to get his grades back in order, along with freshmen Jeff Brinson and Jewel Hampton, both record setting running backs with loads of potential. Greene was a fantastic back in his short time at Iowa before he got in academic trouble; he was powerful and fast and really has star potential, but the only thing is that he hasn't played football in over a year and might be out of shape. We need him to return strong and in-shape to have a great running game next season. Brinson is creating a lot of hype because of his 5,000 career rushing yards in high school and the big Florida schools who were recruiting him; he is very powerful and athletic and he could be our back of the future. Hampton is another speedster from Indiana who put up 2,600 yards in his career. He also has potential to be our future back or contribute right away.
If they are healthy, our wideouts could be a pleasant surprise after the much needed experience last season. With injuries and suspensions, our wideout group was woefully thin and young last year, with freshman thrown into the fire and having to play major time. We lost one of our better ones, James Cleveland, after a drug arrest, but the majority of everyone is back and healthy and they could be a pleasant surprise if everything goes according to plan. Andy Brodell is big and extremly fast; most Hawkeye fans can still remember the havoc he wrecked on Texas's defensive backs in the '06 Alamo Bowl. He was looking like our number 1 guy and a valuable possesion reciever last season before he hurt his hamstring, and coming back healthy this year is huge for our passing game. Trey Stross was also hurt for a few games last season and that made a major impact. Trey is fast, athletic, and he has great hands. He has star potential and could have a huge season. Derrell Johnson-Koulianos was a big surprise last year with the injuries; he made some amazing, sportscenter worthy plays and catches and was our most dangerous big-play guy in the passing game. He's a great athlete and can also be used in a variety of ways. He needs to cut down on the drops this season, but keep on providing big plays. Colin Sandeman was banged up last year but showed a tough, physical side, speed, and a willingness to catch them over the middle. He could be a valuable contributor. Paul Chaney has major speed, but he's a little guy who couldn't always hang on last year. With his explosive quickness, he's a threat everytime he touches the ball though. We have Tony Moeaki coming back healthy at tight end as well; he showed in his limited time last year that he's a legit John Mackey candidate. He has great hands and quickness for a guy his size, and he's a fantastic blocker. Almost everything you can want in a tight end. He will probably be Jake's favorite target, as he showed in the Syracuse game last season when he had 3 TDs and over 100 yards. Brandon Myers is the backup tight end and played very well in Moeaki's absence; he's not the explosive athlete or blocker that Moeaki is but he has good hands and was a reliable target. Allen Reisner is also a big target to look our for; he has gotten a lot stronger and faster this spring and has gotten more of an opportunity with spring injuries. Lots of depth at this position. Perhaps the biggest X-factor on the team besides the running game is the offensive line; they were horrible last year, which is surprising for a Kirk Ferentz coached team, and allowed some of the most sacks in the nation. JC contributed to some of those sacks, but the line just never gelled or played as a consistent unit. Defenses were constantly in the backfield, and these guys never became that stout "family" that our best lines have been. Some names to look for include Rafael Eubanks and Rob Bruggeman, who are battling for the center position. Whoever loses the battle will probably start at another spot, because both of these guys are leaders and too good to be left off the field. Seth Olsen will be the lone senior, and should be a cornerstone of the line. He was somewhat inconsistent, but was our best run blocker. Bryan Bulaga, Kyle Calloway, and Dan Doering are all great young linemen with loads of potential, and they will need to be good for us to have success. Dace Richardson came into Iowa with the hype of an All-America, a future NFL star and cornerstone left tackle. Injuries have kept him on the sideline more than on the field, but if he get his knee injuries worked out than he can be our best lineman. Julian Vandervelde is another fairly young lineman who played average last year; he isn't bad but there may be better guys at his spot.
Our defense looks to be our strength once again, keeping up with the Iowa tradition of being tough, hard-hitters and playing straight up, traditional D with no fancy tricks. Simple and fundamental; that's how Iowa plays defense. We don't blitz often, but if everyone mans their position and smacks their opponents around than it's a porven formula for success. We must replace two corners, two defensive ends, and two linebackers but for the most part the replacements should be better than the guys they'll be taking over for. The D-line should be a major strength, with seniors Mitch King and Matt Kroul holding down the middle for the 4th year in a row while Adrian Clayborn and Christian Ballard take over for Kenny Iwebema and Brian Mattison, who both graduated. King plays harder than anybody on this team, with a reckless energy and constant motor that make up for his lack of size. He is always active and making big plays, probably our best defender. Kroul is his less-heralded partner, but he is always solid in run support and rarely makes mistakes. Clayborn and Ballard are far more explosive and quick off the line than Iwebema and Mattison; we should see more pass rushing and getting in the backfield with these two. They both made huge plays in our wins down the stretch last year in limited time. Clayborn is massive, a great athlete, and has All-Big Ten potential, while Ballard is a little undersized but will almost always be quicker than the lineman he is matched up against and should be able to wreak havoc in the backfield on a regular basis. Hardworking seniors Mike Klinkenborg and Mike Humpal, both stalwarts in stopping the running game and tackle machines with loads of heart, have graduated and finding their replacements is a big priority. AJ Edds was the other starter last year, and he should be one of our best players. He is quick and a solid tackler, a sideline-to-sideline playmaker who is surprisingly solid in coverage. He will also be counted on for leadership. Jacody Coleman, Pat Angerer, and Jerimiha Hunter are the other three guys competing for the last two spots. Coleman played fantastic when subbing in for Klinkenborg last year; he showed a non-stop motor, great quickness off the line, and very solid tackling ability. Angerer has been banged up his entire Hawkeye career, but he plays with a lot of heart and has had a great spring. He will probably take one of these spots. Hunter was one of the stop high school players in the nation when he committed to Iowa, a 5-star recruit and Parade All-American. He has great athleticism and can run and make plays all over the field, but something must not be panning out because he is not making much noise on the depth chart. If he's your back up though, you know you have some good linebackers. The safety spots will be held down by heavy hitter Harold Dalton and the young Brett Greenwood. Dalton plays in the Marcus Paschal vein, in that he isn't great in coverage but can really lay some big hits on you across the middle and in the backfield. Greenwood was a great surprise last year; he made a few freshman mistakes, but he worked his way up from being a walk-on and made his share of game-saving plays, including an interception of Eddie McGee to beat Illinois and a pick against Minnesota on a two-point conversion attempt to win that one. He plays with a ton of energy and should be Iowa's next walk-on surprise. The great Charles Godfrey and the not-so-great Adam Shada have departed, leaving room for Jordan Bernstein and Bradley Fletcher to take over the corner spots. Bernstein was one of the most highly regarded prospects out of Iowa in years when he committed, and he has loads of potential. Hopefully he can realize it next season. He has great speed, athleticism, and size, which all combine to give him lockdown corner potential. Fletcher was very inconsistent and got beat often before the last few games of last season. He made a few picks and played solid coverage, a nice improvement over Shada, who got beat a couple times every game. If Fletcher can play like he did to end last year he will be just fine.
As for special teams, it's been a team weakness for a couple years now; in 2004, our rock-solid, reliable kicking game and blocked punts truly helped lead us to the Big Ten title, but since then special teams has really been regressing. We have potential studs and lots of speed in the return game, but our kicking game is a big question mark. Daniel Murray has more accuracy than Austin Signor, but a weaker leg, and vice versa. I thought Murray would be our guy after the Michigan State game, when he hit two 40+ kicks, but he missed multiple extra points in the Western Michigan game to raise doubts about his leg once again. I still think he is more consistent than Signor, who is good for kickoffs, but we can't afford to miss extra points. Punting started off as a weakness, but with all the practice he got thanks to our poor offense Ryan Donahue eventually became one of the Big Ten's best. He has a very strong leg and should be very reliable for the punting game. So, with our easy schedule, potentially dominate defense, and hopefully the emergence of a running back to go along with the improved passing game, I think we can go 9-3 or 10-2. I know those sound like lofty goals with the underacheiving we have been doing lately, but it's a realistic possibility and anything less than 7 or 8 wins with this schedule is disastrous.
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Memphis controls the number 1 seed in this region, where they will matchup with the Southland conference champs, Texas-Arlington. Memphis is perhaps the most athletic team in the nation, perfect at executing their dribble-penetration centered attack now famously known as the dribble-drive thanks to freshman point guard Derrick Rose, who I think is the best point in the nation. Few, if any, teams in the nation can guard the bevy of athletes that Memphis puts on the floor every night; when they are attacking in transition, forcing turnovers with their pressure defense, and just overwhelming teams with their aggressive offensive style than there is NO team in the nation who can stop them. Rose is big, strong, and cat-quick, unstoppable off the drive with a decision making ability that belies his freshman status. He's got a beautiful pull-up and deadly jumper, and seems to already know the balance between scoring and dishing. That's good because he has plenty of athletic teammates to pass the ball too. Chris Douglas-Roberts is their most consistent player and scorer, a lanky athlete with a wide array of quirky ball-handling moves and tear drops to put up 15-20 points every game. Robert Dozier is long and (surprise) athletic, a valuable defender and finisher around the rim who can also step out and hit the outside shot. Very versatile. The key to the team is probably Joey Dorsey, pretty much Ben Wallace in blue and white. When Dorsey can control his emotions and stay out of foul trouble, he is the most intimidating inside player in the nation. He attacks the glass with a vicious ferocity, finishes stronger than anyone in the college game, and is great at blocking shots from the help-side. Shawn Taggert is also a valuable scorer off the bench. They have loads and loads of depth and size at every single position, which only adds to the impossibility of guarding them. If Memphis wins it all, they will have set the record for most wins of any team, ever. They should get started with UT-Arlington, an athletic team as well but one that doesn't have the size or depth to keep up with these Tigers. Memphis doesn't even have to be focused to win this one. Mississippi State plays Oregon in the 8-9 game. Pretty hard to get a read on either one of these squads, as they appear to be evenly matched. Oregon got in with a mediocre record thanks to their brutal schedule and end of season improvement; they really miss Aaron Brooks as a leader from last season but they do have plenty of experience and scoring talent. I think Miss. State is a much more balanced team, and their stingy defense should frustrate the jump-shooting heavy Ducks. They have more size and should attack the inside and score in transition...MSU in a close one. Michigan State has been incredibly inconsistent all year long, their offense seemingly coming and going with however Drew Neitzel is shooting that night. They have played unstoppable at the Breslin Center, and they have good size and good athletes, but they have yet to put it all together and Neitzel has not shown the perfect J that everyone expected this season. They will play Temple, another dangerous A-10 team playing fantastic down the stretch. They have a lot of confidence and offensive talent, and unless MSU's big men can play career games to exploit their weak inside presence, than I think that Temple will pull the upset and put the Spartans' up and down year to rest. Pittsburgh will destroy an Oral Roberts team that has become quite the mid-major dynasty, making the NCAAs three years in a row, but has yet to get over the hump. Pitt is playing some of the best basketball of anybody in the tournament, fresh off a Big East tourney title. They have their scrappy leader back, Levance Fields, playing as well as any guard in the country, along with freshman beast DeJuan Blair controlling the boards and the paint and Ronald Ramon stroking threes. Pitt is an extremly tough team that thrives off of physical play and getting to the free throw line, and if they can do that they can beat anybody. Marquette's athletic guards will befuddle undermanned Kentucky, who could really use the inside presence of Patrick Patterson in this game to exploit the lack of any real post presence for the Golden Eagles. Stanford takes on Cornell in a battle of the brains, but the Cardinal have loads more talent than Cornell and this won't even be close. The amazing 7-foot Lopez twins will destroy the Big Red inside, and Stanford's underrated guards will make sure that Cornell's shooters don't get too many open looks. Saint Mary's will pull off a minor upset over Miami, a very athletic and surprising team that will be enjoying their 1st March Madness bid in a while. St. Mary's is extremly balanced and they play great defense, their only problem is they lack a real go-to scorer and may not be able to keep up with Miami's athletes. This should be a close game, the X-factor would have to be the scoring of guard Patty Mills for St. Mary's; he has played inconsistently down the strech and will need to be big for the Gaels to win. Finally, Texas will take down Austin Peay with extreme ease. DJ Augustin will play with the Peay guards and score plenty, or he might just decide to dish to his bigger and faster and stronger teammates (Peay has no starter over 6 foot 5) to dominate the paint and the glass, to open up the periemter for AJ Abrams and his three pointers. Won't even be close. Memphis will eke out a close one over Mississippi State, which could be their wake up call in the tournament. Dorsey's success inside will be important, because MSU has the athletes and size to match up pretty well with Memphis's perimeter players. I think Pitt will crush Temple with their scrappy style of play and the inside presence of Blair, who needs to stay out of foul trouble. Stanford will ride their 7-footers to victory over whatever overmatched forward will be guarding them from Marquette...Brook Lopez's scoring should counteract whatever points the Marquette guards come up with. Texas will take down Saint Mary's easily, as they did in the regular season. Texas has too many threats for the Gaels to guard, and the fantastic Longhorn backcourt will have their way. Pitt will pull off the upset and take down Memphis by slowing down the tempo and playing with a grinding pace that the Tiger's won't stomach; Blair can actually hang with Dorsey and they might get each other into foul trouble, and this just might come down to whatever team makes their free throws (both teams shoot them horribly). I think the physical pace this game will take favors Pitt. The Stanford guards won't be able to handle their Texas opponents, and while Brook Lopez might score a large share of points Augustin will control the tempo and if they're hitting their three than I say Texas in a blowout. Texas will ride their homecourt advantage and hot shooting from their backcourt to a close win over Pitt, and advance to the Final Four.
West
UCLA takes the number one seed in this region, where they take on a horribly overmatched 16 seed in Mississippi Valley State. The Bruins have the best defensive guards in the country, tenacious playmakers who force turnovers and control the ball better than anyone. They also have one of the top big men in the country in freshman Kevin Love...he may not look the part or run the fastest, but he's got the best fundamentals in the country. He finishes strong, can hit the three, and throws the best outlet passes I've ever seen; UCLA will get at least 2-3 transition buckets off of those every game. Darren Collison and Russell Westbrook are both extremly fast and set the tempo on defense...Westbrook is an outstanding athlete and finisher while Collison sets the tempo for the entire team with his leadership. Josh Shipp is also a very important scorer, and when he hits threes he gives the Bruins another dimension. They have trouble scoring sometimes, but if they can hit their outside shots they are unstoppable with that defense they have. Their defensive intensity and the poised play of UCLA's guards will be like nothing their opponents in the 1st round will have seen before, and I expect this to be a typical 1-16 blowout. Texas A&M has been up and down all year, struggling with shooting and guard play, but they have played much better down the stretch and they have some great big men; if they can get DeAndre Jordan going again then that adds another dimension to their game. BYU is a very good team that has dominated their conference and overacheived all season long. They have some great shooters and smart guards, but I think the Aggies have a lot more talent and their athletes in the paint and will come out with the victory. Drake vs. Western Kentucky is a fantastic battle of deadly mid-majors, basically two Cinderellas duking it out before they take on the Kings. Drake has been the best story of college basketball all year long, winning a conference title and getting to the tournament for the 1st time since the '70s with smart play, a lot of three point shooting, and some great pressure defense. Josh Young has been the big scorer, Adam Emenecker the poised and brilliant leader, and Klayton Korver the deep trey shooter. This is a very deep and balanced team, and everybody can really shoot it. WKU also has lots of sleeper talent and outside shooters...this game could be a back and forth battle of perimeter shots. I still think Drake is too good to lose...this season is destiny for them. UConn takes on San Diego, a Cinderella squad that put on a great run to win the WCC tourney and land in the NCAAs. The Huskies seemed to peek at the wrong time, playing better than everyone for a stretch midseason before fading towards the end and getting blown out in their conference tourney. It will be interesting to see which UConn team shows up, but they have the talent to make a pretty deep run if they can pull it all together. Hasheem Thabeet is an extremly tall and intimidating presence inside, especially on defense, while Jeff Adrien provides the consistent scoring and AJ Price the leadership at point. Jim Calhoun has never lost a 1st round tournament game in his tenure, and even if they're not playing great they will still beat an overmatched San Diego squad. Purdue, the surprise team of the Big Ten, takes on the great story of Baylor, a team that has come full circle since the basketball disaster of a few years ago and finally made the NCAAs. Purude came out of nowhere with a bunch of great freshman to finish 2nd in the Big Ten conference. Robbie Hummell is a great all-around hustle player and E'Twaun Moore is a fantastic three point shooter, and both frosh have played big roles in the Boilermakers success. Baylor has one of the most explosive and entertaining set of guards in the entire country, and they are lead by the high-scoring Curtis Jerrells. Baylor plays out of control at times and they can turn the ball over, and while Purdue plays more under control, the young Boilermakers have never seen guards like Baylor's before and I think the Bears keep their miracle season going. A very experienced, smart, and deep Xavier team takes on the ultimate Cinderella, 14 seed Georgia. Georgia was horrible all year long before winning 4 games in 3 days to win the SEC tournament. XAvier won't take them lightly with a great leader like Drew Lavender, and the Bulldogs will be too worn out from their miracle run to put up much of a fight against the balanced Musketeers, who can attack you in so many ways and play great defense. West Virgina is playing fantastic basketball lately, and while Arizona has loads of talent they seem disjointed and without leadership right now thanks to the absence of Lute Olson. Joe Alexander leads the Mountaineers in scoring and intensity; he is a fanastic athelete and shooter, and hardly anyone has played in his time zone the past few weeks. Arizona has a similar player in Chase Budinger, a very talented scoring guard in Jaryd Bayless, and a very tough, athletic post player in Jordan Hill, but they have yet to put all that talent together and play consistently and I don't see it happening against a very hot WVU team. Finally, Duke takes on Belmont. Duke played better than a lot of people expected this season, relying heavily on three point shooting, defense, and the individual scoring of Gerald Henderson to win games. Their reliance on the outside shot and lack of any inside scoring presence makes them vulernable, but they should still beat a little Belmont team that relies just as strongly on the three pointer. UCLA will frustrate the hell out of A&M's guards with their stingy defense, and pull out a close, low-scoring victory. Drake will pull out an upset over UConn with hot shooting and by forcing turnovers; I just feel something magical coming from Des Moines, Iowa and UConn is not playing like the UConn of old. Baylor will run into a much more disciplined and battle-hardened Xavier team with the guards to contain theirs' and the post players to cause problems for the Bears. They are just a better and more balanced team, and they've been here before. Duke will beat West Virgina with their defense, but they will need to hit their shots and get Gerald Henderson going or else West Virginia is going to ride their Duke-hatred to victory. The Mountaineers are playing hungry right now and I don't see anyone on the roster of the Blue Devils who can stop Alexander, but I'm still saying the Coach K team wins here. UCLA has athletes that Drake has never seen before, and the way they play defense I don't see Drake getting too many easy looks. I just see the Bulldogs getting overwhelmed here, and their miracle run will end. Xavier will beat Duke with balance and smart play, the way they have been winning all season. They have an inside scoring presence, which Duke lacks, and they don't have to shoot threes to win. This will be a low-scoring, defensive oriented game, and Xavier will win. UCLA-Xavier should be a great game, and whichever team can hit some shots will come up with the victory. Both squads play defense and are evenly matched, but if UCLA's athletes can get goin and force some turnovers then they might run away with it. It really all depends on which team shoots better, and I'm gonna go with UCLA to make their 3rd Final Four in a row, and win it this time. In my bracket, I have UCLA overcoming Texas with, you guessed it, defense. Love and Mbah a Moute will also have their ways inside. North Carolina will get revenge on Georgetown to advance to the championship game as well, riding a legendary performance from Hansbrough and making the Hoyas try to keep up with their blinding pace, which hardly anyone in the nation can do. In the championship game, I think Ben Howland gets his 1st title by slowing down the pace and frustrating Hansbrough and Lawson with defense. UCLA is on top again. In the real championship game, Kansas took down Memphis for the crown. Memphis played better than anybody from the Sweet 16 on, crushing each opponent on their way to a title game against a Kansas squad that just barely survived against Cinderella darling Davidson and then shocked the nation by jumping on Carolina 40-12 before rolling to a fairly easy victory!! Memphis really lost the title game before Kansas won it by missing free throws down the stretch that could have clinched it and not fouling Mario Chalmers soon enough before he hit the amazing tying three to send the game into overtime. It was one of the best championship games in memory, it's just too bad Memphis had to let it slip away like that. It's good to see that Kansas finally put their mass of talent and balance together to win the whole thing this year; they definitely proved they are the best team in basketball.
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Wednesday April 2, 2008
An amazingly balanced, talent-stacked Kansas squad, the Big 12 champs, nabbed the number 1 seed in this region, where they get to participate in a glorified scrimmage against the 16 seed, Portland State. Few teams in the nation have the size and depth to handle all the big bodies the Jayhawks throw at their opponents. They have 4 or 5 guys 6 foot 8 and taller who get solid minutes; they are lead by athletic finisher Darrell Arthur and big, strong banger Darnell Jackson, perhaps the most improved player in the nation. Sasha Kaun also plays a huge part in KU's success; the 7-footer plays a key role finshing off plays down low when other guys get pressured while also cleaning up the glass and anchoring the defense. The star of the team is Brandon Rush, a smooth and versatile scorer who has a pretty touch from deep. Guards Russell Robinson, Mario Chalmers, and Sherron Collins are all talented scorers, tenacious defenders, and capable ball-handlers who are versatile enough to play the point. Robinson is the best ball handler and a great defender, Collins is strong, athletic, and tenacious in attacking the basket, while Chalmers is the best three-point shooter. Probably the deepest and most overall talented team in the nation, but I still don't trust Bill Self to get this team to the Final Four. He has had great KU teams before but they have been unable to get over the hump, and even though this may be the best one yet, I still have to see Self get these talented teams into the Final 4 before I give them much credit. UNLV takes on Kent State in an 8-9 battle of mid-majors. Kent State has been one of the best mid-majors all season long, dominating their conference and playing hard against some good teams. UNLV has overacheived in a competitive Mountain West, and they have a great coach in Lon Kruger, but I think Kent State has more talent and I like their full body of work a little better than UNLV's, so I like the Golden Flashes. The red-hot Clemson Tigers take on Villanova in the 5-12, a team that was one of the last squads named to be in the tourney. Clemson is very fast paced and athletic; they play with great energy, attack the basket, and can beat anybody when they shoot well from the outside. Their inconsistent free throw shooting is often the catalyst for their victories, and they shot them so well in the ACC tournament that they got to the final. If they can carry the momentum from that experience into the tournament they will be hard to beat. 'Nova is another fast paced, inconsistent squad that relies on guard play...they don't have much of an inside presence, but neither does Clemson. Scottie Reynolds is one of the best scoring guards around and can really take over a game. Both of these teams play similar styles, but Clemson is on a role right now and I don't see them losing. Vanderbilt takes on an upset-minded Siena squad. Vandy is one of the most balanced and potentially dangerous teams around; they have a deadly senior perimeter scorer in Shan Foster, who is scary good from deep, and a big, fundamentally sound post player in AJ Ogilvy. They are too experienced and solid in all categories to lose to a Siena team that has plenty of three shooters and will need them to be hitting to stand a chance. I got Vandy big. USC versus Kansas State is perhaps the most hyped 1st round matchup of them all, pitting super-frosh OJ Mayo and Micheal Beasley in a battle of future NBA talent. Mayo may not have had the all-world 1st season everyone expected, but he still had an amazing year and was one of the most exciting perimeter scorers in the country, showing a quick 1st step and deadly shooting range. He improved as the year wore on and he became smarter with his shot selection, and I believe he has a better team around him than Beasley; a good point guard in DJ Hackett and an athletic, skilled post scorer in Taj Gibson. They are very athletic overall and came out of the stacked Pac-10 with a good record, so I'm picking them to beat a K-State team that did have a good year, but they have not played well down the stretch and I don't think they have enough around the incredible Beasley to win. Beasley plays lazy at times, but he has all of the skills you would want in a basketball player; size, speed, handle, shot extending beyond three point range, etc. He really is a near-perfect combination of talents. Bill Walker is also a tenacious athlete and strong rebounder, but outside of those two, who do they have?? USC is the better team here. Underrated Big Ten champ Wisconsin takes on Cal-State Fullerton, a team that might make this game closer than most people will think. Wisconsin is far from flashy and they rarely score loads of points, but they have tons of experience and more size than anybody but Kansas. Micheal Flowers is the glue guy; a great defender and athlete who seems to make all the big plays. Joe Krabbenhoft is a great blue-collar hustler who can score in a variety of ways, Trevon Hughes provides a big scoring spark and is dangerous from downtown, and Jason Bohannon provides a very pure three pointer from the bench. And that's not even their big guys. Brian Butch has finally lived up to some of his hype, playing tough inside all year and showing an improved touch from outside along with some leadership, while Greg Stiemsma is a large hunk of man and defensive anchor and Marcus Landry another talented glue-guy and dirty work player inside. The Badgers don't have a whole lot of athletcism though, and if a team is scoring a lot of points Wisky is gonna have a tough time outscoring them. They play smart, tough, and they stress defense, all testaments to their coach, Bo Ryan, and while they might get a test from the athletic, high-scoring CS-Fullerton squad, they will put them away and win solidly, mark my words. Gonzaga is not the mid-major king they used to be, while Davidson is lead by the amazingly sugar-sweet stroke of Stephen Curry, one of the most skilled and fun to watch offensive players in the country. His stroke will carry Davidson to a minor upset over an average Zags squad that relies too heavily on the scoring of Jeremy Pargo. And finally, the size and athleticism of Georgetown will take care of UMBC, an upstart team full of local Baltimore talent, as they have no one to stop Roy Hibbert and guards like Jonathan Wallace and Jessie Sapp can shoot the three as well.
Kansas will overwhelm Kent State in the 2nd round; I think Kent will put up a vailant effort, but the crazy amount of depth, size, and pressure that KU will throw at them will just expose Kent State as undermanned, and if Kansas can force a lot of turnovers and get KSU flustered early, than this one won't even be close. Clemson's inconsistent shooting from outside and from the free throw line will come back and bite them against Vanderbilt, a team with the talent and balance to be a sleeper pick. Shan Foster will be hot from downtown and AJ Ogilvy is an inside presence that Clemson won't be able to contend with. I think a more athletic, high scoring USC team will upset Wisconsin in the 2nd round. I worry about the size the Badgers will throw at them, and they are so experienced with a proven coach that they don't seem likely to be upset, but I just like USC's energy and potential to break out and play incredible, while Wisky doesn't have anyone who can guard OJ Mayo, who just might go off. Wisconsin's inside guys are going to have to dominate here, and I don't know if they can keep up the athleticism of the Trojans. And finally, a more experienced, deeper, and bigger Georgetown team will overcome another hot shooting performance form Curry and pull away for an easy win over Davidson. Hibbert will have a great game once again, and the Hoyas will get a large portion of inside buckets and offensive rebounds. I just don't see how the matchups will work here, unless Davidson is on a George Mason-style mission I think the Hoyas got this one. Kansas is simply too good in all areas to lose to a streaky Vandy squad that can be great when they are hitting on all cylinders but extremly average when they don't shoot well. The never-ending depth of KU, the defense, and the size will overwhelm Vandy like they have overwhelmed opponents all year long. USC will finally run into a brick wall with the Hoyas, who will slow the tempo down, play great defense, and run roughshod over the soft USC big men for a close, low scoring victory. I also have Georgetown over Kansas to get to the Final Four. Like I said before, I still don't trust Bill Self and his choke job history to get to the Final 4, even though I believe KU has the most talent of anybody in the country. G-town is one of the few squads around with the size to match up with Kansas, and the Jayhawks won't score as many transition points or force as many turnovers with the poised Hoyas guards and the grinding pace they play at. The Hoyas just play a style that Kansas doesn't matchup well with, and with Kansas's recent cursed history I'm willing to bet somebody goes cold and brings the Jayhawks painfully down once again.
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