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Archive for 200612     ( return to current blog )


 2006 Bowl Preview
 

Well, with even more bowls and plenty of controversy in the BCS, like every year, this bowl season looks to be one of the deepest and most entertaining in years. Im not gonna spend this whole article bitching about the BCS championship because its stated so much now that its just a part of college football and an excuse for analysts to talk for hours, and even though im strongly for a playoff its just not gonna happen in the near future so i prefer to dwell on the positives of college football (emotion, intensity, rooting for my iowa hawkeyes) instead of all the negatives put about by the corrupt NCAA. All that stuff just distracts you from the great game of college football, and crtics of the game obviously haven't watched too much this season to see what it is all about. so here come the bowls.

the poinsetta bowl opens up this postseason on december 19, and if anyone cares about the two teams (northern illinois vs. tcu) playing this is one of the most intriguing matchups of the bowl season. garrett wolfe, the dimunitive but speedy running back for northern illinois, is the nation's leading rusher by far and should have broken all the records the rate he was going at the beginning of the year, but he faded down the stretch and that was a main reason that his team faded as well. he is going up against a dominate tcu defense that is 4th in the nation against the run and is one of the most balanced and quick units around, but wolfe has proven before that he can run well over good units, as he did against the ohio state buckeyes in the season opener. wolfe will have to break some big runs to keep his team in the game because their QB situation is iffy with their starter getting seriously hurt and their defense is average in all areas, especially against the pass. tcu is an incredibly balanced team and in the upper echelon of mid-majors in college football with boise state and such. they have a great senior QB in jeff ballard, a hard-nosed and versatile player who knows how to run the option. the wolfe vs. run defense matchup will decide this game because tcu is a much more talented team.

the las vegas bowl pits BYU against Oregon. byu is one of the hottest teams around and probably the most underrated team in the country right now. oregon is the complete opposite, looking like a pac-10 contender to start the season but failing down the stretch and ending up in the cellar of the conference. the cougars have a high-powered offense and great balance, like tcu. their QB jon beck is one of the best in college football and definitly under the radar, hes an amazing leader and a great decision maker, for prove of his heroism just watch the last game of the season against utah when he made that game-winning td pass. oregon was looking great after their controversial win over oklahoma but they must have felt guilty because everything fell apart. their defense collapsed and their qb dennis dixon lost all confidence, a surprising turnaround seeing as he was considered a team strength earlier in the year. dixon is a athletic and a dual-threat but he started making costly mistakes and it cost the team. byu should run away with this one and john beck should have a monster day, as these are two teams headed in opposite directions.

the new orleans bowl pits rice against troy, not much from either team that warrants a watch except that rice is one of the feel good programs in college football right now, making their 1st bowl appearance since the 1960s, and the owl's playmaking wideout jarett dillard, a stud with 20 tds who is one of the best recievers in the game right now and a key reason for rice's resurgence. i would like to see rice pull out the win against sun-belt champion troy but i'm not too familar with either team's talent so it's hard to make a pick, but ill go with rice simply because of dillard.

south florida plays in the papa johns bowl against east carolina and in my opinion should get their 1st bowl win in school history with ease. they are very under the radar and a program on the rise, they play everyone in the nation tough and are very fast and athletic, especially on defense. i feel pretty confident that they are the 2nd best team in florida right now, to florida u, and we all know the south florida area is rich in talent. they don't have the advantage of sneaking up on people like last year but they have a pretty stingy and quick defense and an offense that makes big plays and can score in a hurry with its speed. frankly, east carolina is just too short on talent to put up much of a fight.

the new mexico bowl matches new mexico versus san jose state, one of the best stories of the year and one of the most improved programs around as well. new mexico shouldn't even be playing in a bowl but obviously the sponsors for this one wanted to draw some fans so they put the home team in, and san jose state should take them out with ease. they have a great coach and a balanced team that doesn't have one area stick out as being great but no major flaw either, and they are a solid team that should stick around as a bowl perenial for years to come and begin that stretch with a fairly easy win over new mexico.

utah plays tulsa in the armed helicopters bowl. utah is one of the best mid-major teams around and kind of underacheived this year, when they were expected to compete for that bcs bid going to a team from a lesser conference. they had that heartbreaking loss to byu in the last game of the season as well and should be riding some emotion and anger in this one. they are balanced and pretty talented on offense, but their catalyst is super-versatile eric weddle, a ball-hawking defensive back who's played all sorts of positions throughout the year on offense as well and has actually played most of the utes' snaps on offense all season long. he's proved dangerous at QB, throwing for a couple tds, and been a dangerous threat running the ball at the goaline too. tulsa is a solid team that showed sparks of being good throughout the season, they have a very efficient and solid QB, but they just don't have the overall talent to take down utah.

the hawaii bowl looks like one of the most exciting games of the bowl season, pitting the hometown university against arizona state, two high-powered offensive teams that lack on the defensive side of the ball. should be very high-scoring and unpredictable with big plays aplenty in this shootout, but either team could pull out the win. colt brennan, hawaii's amazing record-setting QB, is putting up video game numbers with 5,000+ passing yard and around 55 td passes, needing only 1 or 2 to break the ncaa record. even though he plays at a lesser program he should be a heisman front runner next season just because of the stats he puts up. he should have a field day with the horrid ASU defense. the sun devils have always been known for their offense and for their lowly defense, but this year they underacheived on both sides of the ball and once again failed to beat any of the major teams in the conference, costing head coach dick koetter his job. he also made a horrible decision and gave in to peer pressure when he promoted sophmore rudy carpenter ahead of junior sam keller at the quarterback spot, a better QB who was injured for most of the last season. this split the team chemistry-wise and rudy played pretty crappy all year long, this was a main reason for ASU's failure. they should play inspired for for coach koetter's last game though. i expect hawaii to win simply because their offense has been unstoppable all year long.

in one of the most irrelevant bowls this season, the motor city bowl, the more talented central michigan chippewas should take out middle tennessee state with ease, even without their head coach brian kelly, who left to take the cincinati job. they have some nfl prospects on defense and should play with emotion to prove to their former coach that he should have stayed, plus they got a wide talent advantage so i'm taking CMU in this one. for the emerald bowl, florida state has speed and athletes all over the place but thanks to poor and mistake-prone play from the QB position and underacheiving from halfback lorenzo booker their offense sputtered and killed the seminoles season, even though their defense was dominate all year long. ucla is just the opposite, a different and better team than they were last year riding the momentum of their huge win over usc. their defense, especially the pass rush, has been fantastic and their QB patrick cowan has shown steady improvement throughout the year and has great mobility. they will either have an emotional letdown after the usc game or will have tons of momentum, but i'm still taking FSU even though they are heading in the opposite direction of the bruins because they just have too much talent and too many good players to keep losing these games.

oklahoma state should beat alabama in the independence bowl, the crimson tide have had a poor season by 'bama standards and their offense has had trouble moving the ball all year, even though their defense is pretty dominating and one of the best in the nation. OK State is the opposite, with a high powered and versatile offense and a porous defense that has given up big yards through the air all year long. 'bama's failure to move the ball will cost them as the cowboys win a close one with big offensive plays. the aggies will beat the california bears in the traditionally high scoring holiday bowl because i just love their heart and their trio of running stars in hard nosed stephen mcgee, super-speedy big play man mike goodson, and beastly td machine jovorskie lane. california is the more talented overall team with do-it-all back marshawn lynch and big-play threat desean jackson, a speedy threat to score every time he touches the ball. they also have a dominating d-line and secondary when healthy, and even though the aggie's defense is much improved, as they showed against texas, it is not quite elite yet, especially in their young secondary. cal might not show up after a disappointing season when they were expected to compete for the pac-10's bcs bid or even a title, but if they come in with that attitude they won't win. if they come to play than they win, but i just love something about the much-improved and battle-hardened aggies (who should be undefeated with all those close losses) that i like, so that's who i pick, they are definitly a team on the rise.

rutgers should get their 1st bowl win in the school's long and storied history (played in 1st ever college football game) and finish off an incredible season by beating kansas state in the texas bowl. this is a really big falloff from where the scarlet knights could have possibly been, the orange bowl as the big east champ, but after that big win over louisville they lost to cincinnati and west virgnia, relegating them to the lowly texas bowl. greg schiano will have them fired up to play though and they have made too magical of a season to bow down now. rutgers has an aggressive defense and a fantastic running game on offense with blue-collar school hero brian leonard and star tailback ray rice. if they could have gotten more consistent play from QB mike teel they would have been an elite team for sure. kansas state showed improvement in spots and their offense had the potential to be explosive, as they showed against texas, but they are not as talented as rutgers at this point so i'm going with the original college football squad.

i question whether clemson will be motivated to play kentucky, a team on the rise, in the music city bowl, but they are a much more talented squad and should win if they come out with some energy and don't suffer a letdown from their disappointing finish. to start the year they looked like a lock to win the acc, but like always they lost down the stretch and got stuck in a crappy bowl game. they have speed and athleticism like few teams around, with an opportunistic and frenetic defense and a deep, dangerous running game. QB will proctor is a good athlete but struggled down the stretch. kentucky has a horrible defense, at least statistically, but they have a pretty nice offense and if clemson doesn't watch out they will be surprised by the resurgent wildcats. still look for clemson with the win though.

the sun bowl pits the surprising oregron state beavers against missouri. noone thought OSU would be in a bowl after their poor start but they are one of the hottest teams around and it all started with that upset win over usc. missouri is the opposite, starting out 6-0 but finishing 8-4. they have a fantastic young quarterback in chase daniels who surprised everyone by replacing record-setting QB brad smith and then some. they faded down the stretch but were still one of the better teams in the big 12 and a big surprise for the year, with a potent and unpredictable offense and a pretty good defense. i know oregon state is hot right now but i can't just forget the opposite starts of both teams and i think missouri is better, with a pretty unpredictable offense and 2 huge tight end targets to throw too and tear up the beaver's defense, and they're my pick.

south carolina vs. houston should be a good game in the liberty bowl. the ol' ball coach will have some trouble containing the cougar's high powered offense, led by stud QB kevin kolb. but the gamecocks have a very respectable defense that should keep up with them, and no matter who is at quarterback for south carolina they have the ability to make big plays on offense, and if they could get the ball to physical freak sidney rice than look for the offense to put up big numbers and put houston to sleep. i got south carolina winning this one because they played tough and scrappy all year long and played a tougher schedule than houston and came out of it respectable, but houston is a dangerous team that can put up points and this game could be close.

the insight bowl pits texas tech against minnesota, one of the biggest mismatches of the bowl season. tech will tear apart the gophers weak defense (in all areas, but particurally pass since that's what tech does) with their constant shotgun-formation, 5-wideout passing stuff. minnesota can put up some points too, with a great passing game led by bryan cuptio and a surprisingly dangerous running game even without starter gary russell thanks to academics. but with their poor defense tech should be unstoppable this could be a blowout.

maryland should beat purdue in the champs sports bowl. purdue has played no defense all year and while maryland is no offensive juggernaut (their stats are all at the bottom of D1 football, especially for their record) they are efficient and have good balance, and they can put up points if QB sam hollenbach is playing well. purdue can put up numbers but they also turn the ball over a lot and are lucky they are playing in a bowl, maryland is a better team even in a weaker ACC conference.

in the meineke car care bowl boston college squares off against navy, who could pull the upset and surprise the eagles. i pick BC because they are just bigger and faster than the midshipmen, but i don't think they'll be that motivated to play, especially with the sudden departure of their coach, and they kind of collapsed down the stretch of the season. navy has the best rushing attack in the nation but they basically never pass, but no team has been able to make them one dimensional so far. i give the advantage to BC just because of the difference physically.

my hawkeyes go up as big underdogs against the longhorns in the alamo bowl, iowa probably shouldn't even be playin in a bowl the way they performed during the 2nd half of the season (no effort, energy, injuries) but kirk will have them ready to play and motivated to take advantage of this opportunity we really don't deserve. texas is a superior team athletically but we have a lot more talent then people think, we are just a young team learning how to play tough consistently and how to play together. drew tate should have major motivation playing in his last game as a hawk in his home state and the texas secondary played really bad down the stretch for having all those all-americans, not a good combination. our defense was decimated by key injuries but if we can get a pass rush going with the return of kenny iwebema than we might have a chance to knock the banged up colt mccoy out of the game, as kenny's injury was the major blow to our defense. mccoy will not be 100 percent so we should take advantage of that, and i think things are aligning positively for iowa, so im bein the loyal fan and picking my hawks.

the peach bowl is a matchup between dominate defenses and young Qbs, so this should be a low scoring one as virginia tech takes on georgia. the hokies had the top defense in the nation this year and should cause major problems for frosh matthew stafford of georgia, but the 'dawgs played much better down the stretch and if stafford can make some big plays than georgia has a chance. but i think va tech's "d" will give the dawgs too much trouble, and their offense will ride the very productive brandon ore and the improving sean glennon to a win.

the miami hurricanes are not used to playing in the cold this time of year, especially not on the blue turf of boise at the mpc computers bowl, but they still have such great athletes after their nightmare season and much more talent than nevada, plus the motivation they will have playing for larry coker's last game and the death of bryan pata, so i give the edge to the U. they will have serious emotion to fight for coker and pata and to avenge the disappointing season they had, nevada is very dangerous on offense and they can make big plays but the speed advantage of miami wil be very evident, especially on defense, as the hurricanes cruise to a close win.

penn state and tennessee in the outback bowl is a tough one to predict, as both teams seem well-matched. penn is one of the most underrated teams around and are much better than their 8-4 record suggests, as those losses came against notre dame, ohio state, michigan, and wisconsin. they have a fantastic defense that is borderline dominate, with maybe the best linebacking corp in the nation led by two-time bednarik award winner paul posluzny. their offense has been pretty lethargic all year but they are breaking in a new QB, tony morelli, who has steadily improved as the season wore on, so that's expected. the volunteers were a surprise team this year, coming off a 5-6 season and going to a january bowl now. theri offense has been pretty nice, with a undeniable starting QB in erik ainge and a playmaking wideout in robert meachem. they fought through a tough SEC schedule and had the potential to go to a BCS bowl but they had a lot of close losses, and i just think their offense will put up more points than penn's, so im picking the volunteers.

Cotton Bowl: auburn is a better team than nebraska but they were inconsistent and lost some surprising games this year that kept them out of a BCS game, even though they beat florida. they have a great defense full of speed and playmakers, and they have a nice running game even though senior kenny irons underacheived big time, but their offense was often weak thanks to the weak arm of brandon cox, who in his defense was accurate. nebraska had a great passing attack and an emerging running attack as the season wore on, great balance, as well as a great pass rush. but they couldn't compete with the top teams in the big 12 and lost a lot of close games, and i think athletically auburn is a much better team who just had some tough breaks this year. should be close but auburn pulls it out.

if west virginia shows up ready to play and motivated they should take georgia tech to town in the gator bowl, always a disappointing team to me that i feel could do so much better than they do with all-world reciever calvin johnson. west virginia lost some close games and are one of the most dangerous teams in the nation, in my opinion the best in the big east anyway. their combo of pat white and steve slaton is unstoppable with their creative rushing. both are super speedy and freak athletes who are elusive and know how to use the team's rushing schemes to their advantage. white showed improvement as a passer but it is still not his strong suit and could be considered a weakness. slaton also fumbled too much in their losses. georgia tech should tear up west virginia's horrible secondary (and overall defense) if they can just get the ball to CJ, but they haven't been able to do that consistently his entire career. that's why i think it's a good thing that reggie ball is academically inelligle, as someone new needs to step in and throw the ball to him and reggie just wasn't that person, he seemed to care too much about running around and padding his own stats. tech has a deadly rushng threat that could also tear the mountaineers up and a fast and athletic defense, they would still be hard-pressed to keep up with west virginia's rushing theatrics. WV in a semi-close game.

wisconsin didn't play an overly taxing schedule but they are a good team that surprised everyone and fought through adversity, so they should beat a talented arkansas team in the capital one bowl. john stocco is a great leader who made a bunch of no-name receivers studs this year, and the badgers have a beastly rushing attack with bruiser p.j. hill that made their offense effective. arkansas is dangerous on offense because of unique play calling and versatile offensive machine darren mcfadden, a do-it-all speedster and heisman runner-up. they can score and break big plays at any time, even without much of a semblance of a passing game. should be close but wisconsin is talented and smart and balanced, they should make arkansas one dimensional and win.

michigan and usc in the rose bowl looks like the best game of the bowl season, 2 storied programs that could easily be in the title game. tons of talent and big names on both sides, and two well-respected head coaches and programs with tons of history. both squads had big seasons that ultimately ended in disappointment, with losses that kept them out of the title game. hopefully both teams will recover from their disappointment and get angry and motivated to play each other in a classic. the wolverines have a dominate defense with nfl prospects at every position, led by massive tackle alan branch and pass rusher lamar woodley. workhorse mike hart carries their offense and strong armed chad henne may be overrated but he can make big plays with a speedy cast of wideouts, led by td-machine mario manningham and speedy steve breaston. usc had to re-load on offense after losing two heisman winners, but they always get stud recruits so that's not a problem. john david booty had a very good year that ended bitterly against ucla, and the young defense became suffocating as the season ended, with a great pass rush and hard hitting from the linebackers and secondary. michigan just looked too dominate this year for me to go against them and they played ohio state better than anyone, their defense plus usc's recent offensive struggles equals success for the wolverines.

quick picks now as i must move on to other things, mainly iowa football, oklahoma's got too much speed and defensive stardom to bow down to cinderella favorite boise state in the fiesta bowl, who could shock the sooners with their high powered offense if oklahoma shows up not ready to play. i got the more talented sooners anyway, espeically if adrian peterson returns. louisville should end wake's dream season in the orange bowl, the demon deacons cannot keep getting by on efficiency and not turning the ball over, as the cardinals got too much offensive explosion for the undermanned wake forest team to endure. notre dame lost to all their big opponents this season and the sugar bowl should be no different. the irish defense gave up big yards through the air and big plays all year and just did not play well, and lsu's fast and explosive offense should tear them apart, especially with jamarcus russell, who will look to outplay brady quinn in his final game and better his draft status. the sugar bowl will also be played right in lsu's backyard as a virtual home game for them in new orleans. cincinati will beat western michigan in the international bowl, they played a tough schedule and almost upset top teams like virginia tech so they will beat the less talented WMU. lower bowl perennial southern miss will use their experience in these kinda games to take out bowl newcomer ohio, while ohio state takes the cake against florida in the national title game. i just dont see anyone beating the buckeyes, they have been fantastic and unstoppable in all facets of the game all year and while the gators are extremly talented and have the best shot to knock out OSU, they have not been perfect and exposed plenty of offensive flaws all year long, while the buckeyes apparently have none. troy smith plays his best in big games, he is a leader and a playmaker and will go out the right way. the buckeyes just have too many offensive playmakers, florida's "d" is one of the best around but so was michigan's, and look what happened to them.
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