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Thoughts on basketball and football
Archive for 200611 ( return to current blog )
Thursday November 23, 2006
The deepest and most talented conference in the NBA is also the most wide-open. The top two teams, Dallas and San Antonio, are widely expected to finish 1 and 2 (though the order is anyone's guess), while the much improved rockets and the chris paul-led hornets battle it out for 3rd, or perhaps higher if everything goes well for them. the memphis grizzlies are looking like they will struggle for a while with paul gasol hurt, as he provided almost everything for them production-wise and with leadership. some of their young athletic guys better step up and they have to keep their other players healthy because even though mike miller is a great shooter and talented overall offensive player he's not the type of guy to carry a team on the offensive end because he is too soft. last year memphis had a great regular season but were probably the worst team in the playoffs after getting spanked by the dallas mavericks. pau gasol had a huge regular season and fought back the criticisms that he was too soft and more of a finesse guy and finally came out as a star player. i dont see how you could see this guy's beard and call him a softie after that. the grizz were a great defensive team last season, definitly one of the best in league, and they played a really tough and scrappy style to win games. they didnt have a lot of athleticism or young talent, but they've really tried to change that now. without pau gasol, however, i just dont see how they can win, he was the center of everything they did and not only their main rebounder but also one of the team's best passers. he brought an intensity and energy every night that they don't seem to have right now. they also lost their ultimate role player and the league's best glue guy, shane battier, to the rockets. that's basically all their leadership right there and a whole lot of their toughness and energy. mike miller can stroke it and has an improved post-up game but can't take over games like pau did, and if they think they're gonna solve their center problems with career underacheiver stromile swift and average greek guy jake tsakalidis then they are very mistaken. hakim warrick has major hops and athleticism with potential as a slasher but he has to show an improved offensive game and be a main scorer now, as well as talented rookie rudy gay, who has all the nba tangibles but disappeared in game during college and doesn't seem to have the right mindset or work ethic to be a superstar. they should hang with teams because they have a good coach and will play stingy defense, but they will have trouble scoring and matching up with some of the league's better big men since they lack much of anything at center. someone needs to establish themself as a point guard as well, hopefully damon stoudemire will play well coming off a major injury, and they need their young athletes to step up their scoring (because this team has a lot of vets and is pretty old) if they wanna have a chance to hang in there with the rest of their division until their star comes back.
the new orleans hornets made an amazing turnaround last year with basically the same average crew, plus one name: chris paul. chris paul is the best young point guard in the league and one of the best period in the league, 2nd only to steve nash in my opinion until he gets a three point shot and surpasses him. paul is the single reason for the hornets being anything resembling a contender and he makes a huge impact on his teammates, makes them a lot better. this is the same crew that finished worst in the league two years ago, pretty average and no-name, but paul's up-tempo playing style and outstanding court vision made them all look like most improved player candidates, none more so than power forward david west. west was a hard-nosed forward who really went after the ball and was a good rebounder and mid-range shooter but he evolved into a star with some impressive numbers last season. paul also got him the ball in key situations and made west a clutch player after all those big shots he made. chris is fast and very well-rounded, a great finisher and a great teammate who gets the ball to his crew in spots where they can be effective, really the ultimate playmaker and leader and still so young as well, i cannot say enough about him. the main issues they had last season, besides lacking overall talent compared to other squads in the deep west, was the lack of a real big man or scoring center they could build their offense around and not enough shooters to thrive off paul's drive-and-kicking. they got rid of immature underachiever jr smith in the offseason, he really wasn't doin much or getting along with coach byron, and also traded pj brown, who's offensive skill has declined considerably but who's leadership, experience, and toughness is impossible to measure in stats. they picked up well-known sharpshooter peja stojakovic, a star in sacremento for many years but hes been in a shooting slump for a while now, and grabbed bobby jackson for some instant scoring off the bench. for big men they grabbed tyson chandler from the bulls, a long and lean athletic player who has almost no offensive game but has talent as a shot blocker and offensive rebounder and might thrive in the up-tempo offense of new orleans as a finisher on the break. they also grabbed two raw rookie big men who could help them considerably down the line, physical shot-swatter hilton armstrong, who was unheard of before last season at uconn, and nc state forward cedric simmons, a long and athletic player with good instincts and defensive ability but who has a long way to go in fine-tuning his game. key guys returning are the athletic slasher desmond mason, a great finisher for paul, sweet shooting rasual butler, known for his range and streakiness, and of course west, who's become one of the best complementary players in the league. it will be a fight for the hornets to make the playoffs because this conference is so competitive but with paul anything is possible, and he does have improved pieces around him. the team just has to jell and get off to another hot start to build that confidence back up, i just don't know if they have the overall talent and depth to bring it every night and compete with the best in the west.
the rockets are much improved depth-wise over last year, but a major injury to either one of the stars (yao and tracy) would still be devastating and strongly hurt our playoff chances. im not not buyin all this title talk with my rockets until they prove they can get past the 1st round of the playoffs either, but this season they have the talent to do so and more. our star inside-outside combo rivals any in the league and is enough to make us a good playoff team in itself, but since we cannot rely on both injury-prone players to make it through the season the management picked up some nice role players in the off-season. van gundy teams always play fantastic defense, especially in the paint, and make it tough for opponents to get their shots off. van gundy's offenses always rely around the big man and are never explosive or fastbreaking, but since he has the weapons to do both now you'll see him be a little more open with his offense this year than in seasons past. don't get me wrong though, yao is still the center of the offense and rightfully so seeing as he is the only dominate big man still playing in the nba, which is shifting very rapidly towards a fast-paced small ball movement. you cant tell me shaq is still a dominate player, maybe with his size but his speed, conditioning, and offensive skill have declined rapidly and he is essentially used as a special role player, whose job is to draw a bunch of attention in the post and pass out of double teams so his 'mates can get good looks. yao came on to end last season and finally put his height and offensive skill to use by aggressively attacking the basket and becoming virtually unstoppable, but the return of tmac makes it uncertain if yao can keep up that production. van gundy is no idiot, so i say yes. i wish i could say the same for tmac, whose back injuries look to affect him long-term. he is still a great scorer and dangerous shooter rising above the defense, but his driving ability and explosiveness is fading fast and he cannot rely on taking tough jump shots over the defense every game to get his buckets. we should be good as long as these two remain (mostly) healthy, as our role players are much improved. we got guys who can hit open shots, a problem last year, and a bunch of "good guys" who fit in with the good guy personas of yao and tracy and players who play the hard-nosed defense-1st style that pleases van gundy, like shane battier. shane might not have the athleticism or star potential of rudy gay, who we traded in the draft to get battier, but shane is the league's ultimate role player who does all the little things coaches love, is a suffocating defender, and he hits the opens shots. he basically does everything that will make van gundy happy and he is a great fit for us with his versatility. we picked up kirk snyder, who injects the backcourt with hops and athleticism, excellent at driving to the basket. other new players are greek point guard vassillis spanoulis, an aggressive and high energy playmaker who lacks much of a consistent jumpshot but who loves to attack the defense, and bonzi wells, a late signing and a major steal if wells ever gets healthy. bonzi can score in the post and rebound like a beast against taller opponents, it's just a matter of keeping him motivated and getting him playing time. we should make the playoffs in the deep west because we have a great mismash of talent, we just need to get good chemistry and get the players playin together, and if our stars are healthy much more is possible.
The spurs are experienced and balanced and built for a title with all the right pieces, plus they will have major motivation after their defeat at the hands of the mavs in last year's playoffs. they gotta stay healthy, especially tim duncan, because they don't have the elite depth or athleticism of other western teams. dallas probably has the deepest and most versatile roster in the league, plenty of athletes and talented offensive weapons and guys who play multiple positions. they have stepped up their defensive discipline for coach avery and their offense is potent as usual, the only problem with it is that everything they do on offense ends up 1 on 1, which bogs things down and really disrupts the flow of the game if the shots aren't falling. the spurs still ride the ultimate fundamentally sound big man, tim duncan, for their offense and he still delivers. he should be back to his old form after suffering through foot injuries last season and career lows in production, even though he still had a great year. tony parker is still improving and is only 24, and w/ his quickness defenses cannot stop him from getting to the basket. manu ginobli is talentwise and athletically up there with some of the elite guys in the nba, but the way he recklessly throws his body around on his drives will eventually lead to him breaking down and suffering some chronic injuries, and his out of control style cannot last forever. he hits open threes as well and should have major motivation after his bad foul on dirk in game 7 of their playoff series against the mavs last year. there isnt a whole lot of depth and the team is the nba's oldest, but they have plenty of experience and veteran leadership and they know how to win. they really need to establish a center or low post threat opposite duncan as well and i dont think fabricio oberto is the guy to do it, but the plodding rasho nesterovic and nazr mohammed sure werent the right guys either. the mavs have the unguardable sharpshooter dirk nowitzki on their side and he should be angry about his passive performances in the final 4 games of the nba finals last year, and he always finds ways to improve his game and his aggressiveness each year. josh howard is a versatile athlete who can guard a bunch of positions and score in a variety of ways, and is a great glue player. jason terry is an explosive scorer and dangerous shooter who has a rep as a stud in the clutch after last year. they got a lot more depth in the backcourt and guys who can come in and do a lot of things, like anthony johnson, who can score and play good defense. and of course there's the lightning quick devin harris, who changes games with his penetration, but he needs to work on his j to keep defenses honest and staying under control. their posts don't give them any inside offense, but desagana diop is a quick and and long-armed impact defender while erik dampier can be a beast inside, especially on d and w/ the boards, if he can ever show a little heart. both these teams are major title contenders and have plenty of playoff experience and some of the top stars and coaches in the league, and should be competing for the division title all year long.
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It's kind of hard to start this off without shedding a few tears, because even though im happy we got lucky enough to be invited to the alamo bowl, which we don't deserve, this season has not been anything like it was supposed to be or what i expected. the expectations and hype we carried into this year is what makes this wasted season so depressing, and the fact that we played maybe the worst football in the country over the month of november, a shocking opposite from what is usually expected here in iowa city and has been a signature of a kirk ferentz team, that we always play our best ball in the month of november. every year since kirk has come here and rebuilt the program we have been known to get off to slow starts and slowly start to surge and dominate as the season rolls on, but it has been the complete opposite this year, as we looked like a big ten contender early but slowly started unraveling due to countless reasons, some controllable and some not, as we looked like the worst team in the big ten over the last few weeks. it's pretty disheartening for the future as well since we don't have the 5-star recruits that the other schools are getting so if we are playing bad now we might not be able to make the improvements for the future. a crappy season like this doesn't help our recruiting either, as every big win brings in recruits and every big loss shuns them. at least our recieving corps is all young and should improve and get more consistent, as they were a main reason for our failures down stretch thanks to some very inopportune drops that killed our momentum and cost us a shot in games. the thing that really personified the depression of this season and was a culmination of this losing frustration was the benching of our beloved QB, drew tate, in the 3rd quarter of the minnesota game after some horrible throws that were killing our momentum, most notably a pick in the redzone on their 5 yard line when we could have taken our 1st lead. his competitive and intense nature that have so defined him and made him a legendary leader throughout his 3-year iowa career was no hurting him and an object of much scorn as he screamed in his reciever's and linemen's faces and threw his helmet to the ground after bad plays. this kind of heart-on-your-sleeve mentality is praised when the team is winning but criticized when you're losing. injuries also played a big problem in our failures, as we could not stop anyone down the stretch. the only defensive effort i was satisfied with was the loss against michigan. we played with an intensity and toughness not seen for the rest of the year, as you could see the determination on their faces to turn the season around and forget about that shocking loss to indiana. we shut down mike hart for the 1st half and kept our team in the game, since our offense could do nothing, but when mike hart started heating up and our offense kept up its conservative and ineffective ways we couldn't hold on for the win. the biggest injury for our defense was kenny iwebema, considered maybe our best player in the preseason and an all big-ten pick last year. he's a physical freak, a big guy and a pass rusher who enabled us to put the occasional pressure on the QB. he also drew lots of attention and made the other linemen look better, but when he went down he made our defensive line, which was supposed to be a team strength this season, into our most obvious weakness. one our team's keys for winning this year was to stay healthy because we have almost no depth, and since that didn't happen our defense could make no stops down the stretch. norm parker never blitzed because he knew our corners couldn't handle opposing recievers in man-to-man coverage, especially w/out adam shada, and even though it was frustrating to watch below average QBs get tons of time to pick apart our zone coverage and look like stars, he was right. our corners are horrible, especially shada's back-up brian fletcher, whom offenses painfully picked on all year. even our vaunted hard-hitting safeties couldn't cover to save their life. for proof of this just watch the northwestern game, when paschal could be seen numerous times chasing after a reciever with his back turned to the ball and just letting the reciever catch an easy pass. injuries to pashcal for a few games as well as to our blue-collar defensive tacklers mitch king and matt kroul also hurt us, but the main injuries on the defensive end that put the dagger in us were iwebema and shada just because their back-ups were not worthy starters and affected the play-calling with their poor play. maybe drew tate's injuries were much worse than he showed as well, as he hinted at that in the minnesota press conference. if this was a factor, my apologies to drew, and i hope for his sake that the once worshipped iowa star did struggle with injuries and that his poor play towards the season's end was not unexplainable. my last complaint with this season's failure has to do with our coaching, which i wouldn't have dared question in seasons past. the play-calling was incredibly conservative, and though kirk might not admit it it had a deciding hand in multiple games. against michigan we were fourth and inches on the goaline and kicked a field goal when we were down 13-3, and we never scored again. the killer was against northwestern, when we were down 14-7 on there 37-yard line in the 4th quarter and punted it!! kirk really needs to show some heart there. for a while i felt like i was the only one noticing this, but i finally got some support in that area as announcers and fellow iowa fans began to hammer kirk with insults on his radio show at the end of the season. our offense was pretty good, i don't blame the coordinator, but a lot of drives we had were shot because of turnovers. tate threw a lot of bad passes and they were all at horrible times, twice at the goaline this season. we also fumbled too much. the defense was too conservative and we gave opposing offenses too much space, but i already stated that bad personnel forced norm parker to call games this way. ultimately it comes back to kirk. i wouldn't dare call for his head after the amazing rebuilding job he has done here and the success he has had the past few years, but his insistence to play the field-position game against our opponents has been our downfall, as the players lose confidence and momentum. all the good coaches have to take some chances, like bob stoops and pete carroll, and kirk won't step over the hump and gain his player's full trust until he starts to show some fire. it's not really kirk's fault, but someone needs to step up and be a leader on this team and shockingly noone has done so, especially not tate. it eventually comes down to execution, and we have been inconsistent with that all year.
noone would expect any semblance of disaster in our 1st six games, when we went 5-1 with our only loss coming against the number 1 team in the nation, ohio state, but we would fade horribly in our next 5 games, losing 4 of them. the thing that made the losing so shocking was how uncharacteristic of a kirk ferentz team it was to lose games in november and the fact that all the pieces were apparently in place for a successful season, it's pretty sad that drew tate had to end his great career this way, hopefully he can deliver a monster bowl performance (against either texas a&m or texas tech) because im sure he has a bitter taste in his mouth from his benching against the gophers. our wins included an easy one over 1-AA montana, were we did everything we were supposed to and showed off all our weapons on both sides of the ball, looked like a positive beginning to a good season. we needed a miracle goal-line stand in overtime to beat syracuse the next week, but i was more relieved then disturbed because drew tate was hurt and his athletic backup jason mansen has yet to be too impressive in any of his starts, though he didn't play horrible in this game. we beat rival iowa state in a passionate home game, drew tate was an amazing leader and put up a great 2nd half to solidify the comeback. we opened up the big ten with an easy win over the horrible illinois fightin illini, one of the worst teams around even though they have a lot of talent for the future. we played conservatively and our offense frequently stalled but our defense was dominate while there offense was horrible, and we made the big plays to pull away. we played hard but lost the big game to OSU, the talent advantage was just obviously not ours and we committed too many turnovers that killed any momentum we had. we whupped purdue in a great rebound game the next week, our offense rolled thanks to fantastic balance and our defense forced turnovers and contained the boilermakers dangerous speed. unfortunately we only won one game for the rest of the season, against non-conference foe northern illinois, a weak mid-major whose only claim to fame was star running back garrett wolfe, a tiny and versatile speedster who put up monster numbers to start the season and generated heisman hype but who faded big time down the stretch, including this game and thats the main reason they lost. tate didn't play but jake christinsen got the nod and played well, gave the offense some good balance but we were not explosive and still needed a late touchdown to seal it. we lost a stunning game to indiana, who rallied in the 2nd half and became unstoppable on offense with wideout james hardy, we made no stops and lots of key players got hurt as our momentum and lead died, and mistakes basically handed the game to them. we still had a chance at the end but a dropped pass by andy brodell led to a game-defining pick, basically exemplified our season. we would lose a defensive battle to michigan even though we played really hard and tough football, mike hart just broke away in the 2nd half and we could not generate the offense we needed. we would go on to lose embarassingly to northwestern at home, defintily the most embarassing loss i have seen in my years of watching iowa, not only because of how bad the wildcats were this season but how bad we played and lost and the level of futility we had on offense. we played well against wisconsin the next week at home but lost anyway, and then lost at minnesota to close the season and make them bowl eligible, handing them the floyd of rosedale for the 1st time in years and allowing the gopher seniors to beat iowa for the 1st time. some of these losses were just embarassing because of how pathetic our offense was and the turnovers we committed, we truly had no chance in some of these games and looked like the worst team in the big ten by far. we'll see if i can be more positive after the alamo bowl, which ill be heading to. im not sure who we'll be playing, my guess is either missouri or texas tech, but i read on cbs last nite that they have texas in there as a possibility. that would be extremly exciting and should get the black and gold passionate and into their football team again, it would also be a great game for recruting, my only fear is that we would get blown out.
all-big ten: the only hawkeye to garner 1st team honors was offensive lineman mike jones, our massive senior who for the most part was our best and most consistent o-lineman. he's big and he's a senior, but our line was average this year and i dont know if anyone from our squad really deserved these honors. fellow o-lineman marshal yanda, another massive senior and homegrown favorite, got 2nd team, i personally think yanda had a better season than jones but it's probably just because im still thinking about his monster pancake block in the iowa state game i was at. other 2nd teamers were hard-hitting safety marcus paschal, who struck fear into recievers going over the middle everywhere and was equally as menacing smashing into the running back. scott chandler landed 2nd team, and while he was our biggest and most consistent target and he scored the most receiving tds on the team there were stretches were he disappeared. honorable mention guys were our punter andy fenstermaker and kicker kyle slicher. andy was our only bright spot with his excellent punting to end the season while kyle played pretty consistently but missed a lot of big kicks. mike elgin, another solid o-lineman, got honorable mention as well as tackle-machine linebacker mike klinkenborg and defensive end bryan mattison, the only positive on the d-line when iwebema got hurt, as he forced a lot of fumbles and has great instincts sticking his hand up to deflect a pass.
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The rocket's needed a good start to this season to get that confidence and swagger back coming off last year's disappointment, and even though there are still many questions and problems i am very impressed overall with houston's performance so far. we currently stand at 8-4 with a ugly win over the washington wizards tonite, who are not looking like an elite team yet alone a playoff contender. two defining wins for us so far have been blowouts of dallas and miami, two teams that are the cream of the crop in their respective conferences and were considered title contenders coming into the season. dallas overcome a sloppy start to win seven straight and look like a great team again while the heat have been playing horrible and stand at 4-7 right now. they are not playing defense and lack any energy, dwayne wade is the only guy keeping them afloat cause noone else is stepping up. it is no coincidence that yao had 30+ in both these games, as it is proven time and time again that when yao gets his touches we win games. this has been our main problem down the stretch and closing games, as it seems that we can never get yao the ball enough in the 4th quarter and just turn the ball over and jack up bad shots (tmac...). the main disturbing things so far have been the simply average play of tracy, who is missing way too many shots, making too many bad passes, displaying horrible shot selection (especially down the stretch), and is just not the monster scorer he used to be. the one thing he is doin really well is attacking the defense with his playmaking, since his shot isn't falling he is getting teammates involved and making some great passes. the other thing is a big problem with turnovers and closing games, as we jump out to big leads but can never maintain them because of a combo of poor shooting, turning the ball over, and defensive breakdowns. the turnovers are usually a result of bad passes from rafer and are other guards and a failure to get the ball to yao, which leads to bad shots. yao has been extremly dominate so far, his free throw shooting has made him unstoppable cause opposing teams have no choice but to foul him. when yao scores, we win, and when tracy pitches along with his big threes and scoring it's always an added plus. i wish bonzi would get his act together and start playing with the team soon ,as i believe this story of bonzi not playing yet is a lot more serious than people are saying. experts had bonzi penciled in for 6th man of the year in preseason but when he finally does join the team from whatever he's been doing, he is gonna be out of shape and out of wack with the team and with chemistry. i'm actually really surprised he hasn't been more motivated to come back after that disappointing summer for him, when he expected to get major money from some team after his huge playoff performance but when noone offered what he wanted and it was already the preseason he panicked and signed a quick one-year deal with the rockets, who he considered a title contender. the recent broken hand of kirk snyder makes bonzi's comeback even more imperative, as kirk's excellent driving ability and athleticism provided some of our most consistent bench scoring. im glad chuck hayes came back soon from that hyper-extended knee too, it looked bad and he only missed two games, his hustle, defense, and rebounding is vital without much of an inside presence beside yao. but overall, we've played well and we should continue to improve as the new players start to coexist and get healthy and tracy continues to get back in playing shape and regain his confidence, even though it's apparent hes not gonna be the player he used to be. as long as we keep running the offense through yao, he should be dominate enough to carry us through the season, so his health is everything for our success.
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Monday November 6, 2006
Well we enter the season with great, even championship, expectations, so i was pretty excited to get this year kicked off. we have ended the opening week 1-2, average and a little disappointing, but it's so early its hard to make conclusion on anything. the only disturbing note i can find so far is the poor play of tracy mcgrady, who managed to get 25 in the 1st game despite poor shooting but who only got 8 against dallas and 14 against the new orleans hornets. when ur the star of the team and considered one of the elite scorers in the game you need to get more points than that, he also needs to shoot better and drive more. i think he will eventually find his rhythm because he is a good player, and his unselfish play has been impressive and beneficial to the team, but i doubt he will ever get his feared driving ability back thanks to his back injuries, which seem to make him afraid of major contact. that used to be the tmac i know, the one who would charge at an opponent and finish by either dunking on or over the defender or else pulling off some crazy athletic scoring move. i guess i have to settle for the jump shooting tracy now, but if he finds his rhythm he is probly the best shooting superstar around. we lost our opener against the jazz, who really played fantastic, i dont blame our boys for that one. carlos boozer went crazy on the boards, banging inside, and with the midrange shot while deron williams looked fantastic and explosive and second year man outta high school cj miles made some big threes in the 1st half. all these guys made up for the surprisingly poor play of star andrei kirilenko, who looked invisible on both ends, and pick and pop big man mehmet okur, who missed most of his shots. ususally these two are key to their team's success but not that night. they surprised even myself by destroying the western conference champion mavs 108-76 on saturday, riding an unstoppable 36 point game from yao to make up for a nonexistent night from tracy. luther head came up big with scoring while rafer made plays happen and was pretty consistent with his shot, something he's had trouble with in the past. our defense was also stifling, limiting anyone who's name wasn't dirk to basically nada. against the hornets we looked pretty good in spots and our defense was very solid but we didn't make the big plays when we had to, while they did, and our shooting and offensive production was poor overall, causing us to lose 96-90. tmac was off, yao didnt get enough touches, and shane missed a few big threes even though he was player of the game thanks to his hustle, defensive energy, and team leading 18 points from a couple corner threes in the 1st half. both teams looked kinda sloppy on offense and shot horribly from the free throw line, but chris paul was a brilliant playmaker with 16 assists, david west made the shots when he needed to and was very consistent, while peja kind of got out of the shooting slump he's in by sinking some deep threes. i dont think this average start will have any impact on the season and i think fans will eventually see us become a dominating team, the main problem we have right now is finding a set rotation and getting everybody, especially the new players, incorporated together. bonzi wells has made minimal impact at best but he missed all of training camp and the preseason so it will take him a while to get situated. once we all come together and tracy finds his offensive rhythm we will be an elite team, mark my words.
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